Vandita Jadeja
5 min read
Quick Read
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RKLB’s bull and bear targets of $155 and $88 both clear today’s $61 price, with Neutron’s first flight serving as the single deciding catalyst.
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The pending Iridium (IRDM) deal is projected to add over $870 million in annual revenue when it closes in mid-2027.
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Neutron is the swing factor for Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB). Shares trade at $60.54. The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $110.53 over the next 12 months means 82.64% upside. The stock receives a buy rating with moderate confidence from our model.
A 50% confidence reading matches a stock with a 2.938 beta and a medium-lift rocket that has yet to fly.
The stock also trades well below the $102.15 analyst consensus, even though backlog stands at a record. In my view, a successful first Neutron flight would push the market to re-rate the whole business.
Record Revenue Collides With a Sliding Share Price
Shares rose 12.8% over the past week. The shares remain down 16.14% over the past month and 13.22% year to date, and they trade between a 52-week low of $37.57 and a high of $151.
The business tells a better story. Q2 revenue came in at $234.07 million, up 62% and ahead of the $230.94 million consensus. GAAP EPS of -$0.08 missed the -$0.0767 estimate, and $8.58 million in acquisition costs weighed on that number.
Backlog rose 137% to $2.36 billion, and the pending Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM) deal is expected to close in mid-2027.
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Why Bulls See $155 if Neutron Flies
Neutron came to market at a $50 million to $55 million average selling price. Chief Executive Peter Beck said on the August call: “Pre-test flight or post-test flight, Neutron demand is not a concern.” Adjusted EBITDA is also expected to turn positive in the quarter after the first successful flight.
