Quick Read
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AMZN hit a record 14% operating margin and 39% AWS growth, yet shares have gained just 6% year to date.
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The consensus price target sits at $332, while the base-case model reaches $377 and a five-year path extends to $518 by 2028.
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Andy Jassy says Amazon may build two trillion-dollar revenue businesses within the next 5 to 10 years.
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The stock fell anyway after Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) just posted its highest operating margin ever, 13.9%.
Shares trade at $237.81 this morning, up only 5.62% year to date, even as AWS revenue grew 39% to $45.98B. I see an opening in that gap between the price and the business. Can Amazon reach $500 per share in 2028?
What’s Holding Amazon Back Right Now
The problem is spending. Amazon guided to about $220 billion of 2026 capex and expects to spend meaningfully more in 2027. Trailing free cash flow is an outflow of $42.4B. Q3 EPS of $1.89 missed the $1.96 consensus, and online stores grew just 2%. Coverage has zeroed in on soaring spending amid slowing online growth and a lower Christmas sales forecast.
The stock’s recent performance reflects it. Shares are down 2.63% over the past week, 1.17% over the past month and 2.45% today. With a beta of 1.456, Amazon swings harder than the market when sentiment turns.
Analysts See $332, but My Model Goes Further
Wall Street’s consensus target is $332.41, backed by 16 Strong Buys, 43 Buys, 2 Holds and 0 Sells. Our model’s base case is $377.20, meaning 54.72% upside from Thursday’s close, with a one-year range of $316.96 to $425.16. Model confidence is high.
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I think the Street is too conservative. Analysts are 97% bullish, earnings growth adds 0.03 to our factor, and the 2027 EPS estimate has rose from $10.0087 to $10.5588 in 90 days. Price targets are trailing those revisions.
