Quick Read
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Microsoft’s stock gained just 2% over the past year while net income grew 32%, creating a gap between share price and earnings growth.
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Azure grew 48%, the commercial backlog surged 73% to $677B, and Copilot daily users rose over 5x year over year.
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Unlike Amazon’s $42B free cash burn and Oracle’s negative $5.4B free cash flow, Microsoft returned $10.2B to shareholders in a single quarter.
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Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) shows a widening gap between its share price and its operating results. The stock rose just 1.6% over the past year. Meanwhile, net income grew 32.01% in the latest quarter. The investment case depends on this gap between share performance and earnings growth.
Why I Keep Coming Back
Corporate AI runs on Microsoft’s plumbing. Companies rent Azure capacity, build agents in Foundry, and pay for Copilot through both seats and usage. Microsoft gets paid at every layer. When a business puts AI to work, the bill usually lands with Microsoft somewhere along the way.
Three Receipts Behind My Conviction
First, growth is speeding up even at a $3.87 trillion market cap. In the quarter ended Sept 30, 2026, revenue reached $92.28B, up 18.8%. Microsoft Cloud brought in $63.9B, up 30%, and Azure grew 48%. Copilot daily users rose over 5x year over year.
Second, the backlog. Commercial remaining performance obligations, meaning revenue customers have already signed contracts for, reached $677B, up 73%. Non-GAAP EPS came in at $4.89 against a $4.72 estimate. That extends a run where every quarter from Q3 25 through Q4 26 also beat estimates.
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Third, the valuation remains reasonable relative to profitability. The stock trades at 29 times trailing earnings and 26 times forward earnings, with a 46.78% operating margin and 34.04% return on equity. The yield stands at only 0.68%, but the quarterly dividend just rose to $0.98 from $0.91. Back in 2008 and 2009, it was $0.13. Debt/equity stands at 0.29, and interest coverage at 50.88x.