Is a stock market crash on the way? The short answer to that is yes, because it’s bound to happen at some point. The longer answer is more complicated, because there are signs it could happen soon, but it’s unknown.
Long-term investors know that a crash is part and parcel of investing, and new investors shouldn’t get too excited about soaring artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. While you should certainly have top growth stocks in your portfolio, you should always be prepared for the prospect, or eventuality, of a market crash.
If it happens this month, Walmart (WMT +4.51%) is an excellent defensive stock to protect your portfolio.
Why Walmart?
Walmart is the largest supermarket chain in the U.S., and since it’s a discount retailer, it’s many shoppers’ main stop for essentials. That means it can generate increasing revenue in any kind of economy, and it often does even better in tough economies, when customers who might shop at more expensive stores switch to save money.
Image source: Walmart.
One of the advantages it has over other supermarkets is its store count. Including Walmart and Sam’s Club stores, its warehouse membership chain, it has more than 5,700 stores in the U.S., and one of them is within 10 miles of 90% of the population.
But it reaches the entire population through its robust digital channels. It’s the second-largest e-commerce retailer behind Amazon, and it recently increased its market share. According to Statista, it has 9.2%, a distant second to Amazon’s 40.5%. However, Walmart’s e-commerce division is actually growing much faster than Amazon’s. E-commerce sales increased 23% year over year in the 2027 fiscal second quarter (ended July 31), and 24% in the U.S. It was the 10th consecutive quarter of U.S. e-commerce growth higher than 20%. Amazon’s third-quarter online sales were up 2%, and third-party sales were up 9%.
WMT Walmart
$130.49+$5.63 (+4.51%)
NASDAQ · As of 3:01 PM ET 11/04/26
Here Walmart’s stores play a role, too. They act as distribution hubs to deliver to customers quickly without incurring build-out costs, and they also offer varied options, such as in-store pickup.
What might happen as inflation soars?
Walmart stock is up a respectable 12% year-to-date, in line with the S&P 500. However, investors have been concerned about the impact of inflation.
Remember, though, that customers come to Walmart for its low prices. So while the short term can look choppy, the trend is in Walmart’s favor.
So far, performance has been solid, and management raised full-year guidance after the second quarter from a midpoint of 4% growth to 4.5%.
In previous market crashes, Walmart did better than the overall market. I won’t claim it wasn’t impacted, but consider how the stock performed relative to the S&P 500 in the 2000 and 2008 crashes:
Not only did it beat the market during the worst times, but it has outperformed the S&P 500 by 532% to 323% over the past 10 years.
Don’t forget the dividend
It’s not Walmart’s business resilience that makes it an excellent defensive stock for your portfolio. Walmart is a Dividend King, which means that it has raised its dividend for at least 50 years. Walmart has raised its dividend for 53 years consecutively, which implies rock-solid reliability.
A great dividend is valuable for multiple reasons, and one of them is passive income during a downturn. Some companies suspend their dividend when the going gets tough, and others don’t raise it. A 53-year track record means you can count on getting a check, even if the market crashes or Walmart’s stock is affected.
