The 2030s could become one of the most momentous decades of recorded history, for more reasons than one. Those years could be the first full decade in which we have artificial general intelligence (AGI), or something close to it. That would not only accelerate the pace of scientific and technological breakthroughs, but quite possibly shift the economic foundations on which society is based (e.g., robots in the workforce).
Another change in the next decade could come to transportation: Indeed, if Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) has its way, by 2036, a large portion of travelers and commuters will be flying in air taxis instead of driving cars.
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But can Archer make and certify eVTOLs at scale by 2036? And better yet, could its stock, currently trading almost 60% lower since last year, rebound and make investors millionaires?
Archer’s trillion-dollar opportunity
In a nutshell, Archer is in the business of making eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) aircraft. Today, that business is mostly nonexistent (or rather, it exists in a pre-commercialization form). Indeed, no eVTOL is flying commercially right now in the U.S. But by 2036, this industry could be at a breakout point, one that transforms eVTOLs into a multibillion-dollar commercial market.
Morgan Stanley, for instance, projected in a 2021 report that the global total addressable market (TAM) for urban air mobility, a broader industry that includes eVTOLs, could grow from $55 billion in 2030 to $255 billion in 2035, before reaching a staggering $1 trillion by 2040. Morgan Stanley even went so far as to project a $9 trillion market by 2050.
Data source: Morgan Stanley.
Of course, this doesn’t mean that Archer will grow into a $1 trillion company by 2040, or that it will even capture a large portion of that growing market. Indeed, Morgan Stanley’s forecast encompasses several markets — like cargo and military — not just passenger transportation.
But since Archer is also developing military aircraft through its partnership with Anduril, and has plans to acquire a defense business (Insitu) from Boeing, its growth opportunity could well exceed ferrying passengers around cities.
