ArcelorMittal (ENXTAM:MT) has just reported its third quarter results, showing higher sales of US$16,466 million and a net loss of US$391 million, compared with a profit in the same quarter a year earlier.
ArcelorMittal’s latest figures land after a volatile stretch for the stock, with a 1-day share price return of 0.59% and a 7-day gain of 2.28%, set against a 30-day decline of 4.29% and a 90-day drop of 14.64%.
Even with that recent weakness, momentum over a longer window has been strong. The year-to-date share price return is 37.53% and the 1-year total shareholder return is 64.66%, supported by multi-year total shareholder returns of 184.29% over three years and 113.60% over five years. This frames today’s €54.82 price in the context of a stock that has already rewarded patient holders while short-term sentiment has cooled.
Spot opportunities across steel and materials by reviewing the hand-picked 16 top copper producer stocks alongside ArcelorMittal’s latest earnings setback and long term share price gains.
Bulls point to ArcelorMittal’s long run of strong shareholder returns, while bears highlight the fresh quarterly loss. Which side does the current valuation backdrop actually support as you weigh the next move?
Most Popular Narrative: 21% Undervalued
On the most followed view, ArcelorMittal is worth about €69.59 per share versus the recent €54.82 close, which points to meaningful upside being priced out despite the latest quarterly loss.
Investments in lower emission steelmaking such as new electric arc furnaces and related projects, including the Dunkirk EAF and Calvert ramp up, are now reflected in higher expected incremental EBITDA of 1.8b from 2026 onwards. These investments can improve earnings quality through a more efficient, premium capable asset base.
See why 26 investors see ArcelorMittal as 21% undervalued.
Result: Fair Value of €69.59 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, the bullish ArcelorMittal story could be knocked off course if decarbonization targets are watered down or if the Ukraine and Liberia disruptions drag on longer than investors expect.
Find out about the key risks to this ArcelorMittal narrative.
Another View: What ArcelorMittal’s P/E Is Saying
While the narrative points to ArcelorMittal trading below a €73.81 future cash flow value, the simple P/E snapshot looks less forgiving. The stock trades on 44.1x earnings, above a 40.4x fair ratio and far above the European Metals and Mining average of 12.2x.
That gap implies investors are already paying a premium multiple, even if the analyst story and cash flow work indicate there is upside on offer. The question for anyone looking at ArcelorMittal is whether earnings can grow sufficiently for that higher P/E to appear comfortable, or whether the ratio moves back toward the fair ratio instead.
