Autolus Therapeutics plc (NASDAQ:AUTL) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.0% to US$1.19 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. Revenues were a bright spot, with US$41m in revenue arriving 3.0% ahead of expectations, although statutory earnings didn’t fare nearly so well, recording a loss of US$0.21, some 3.7% below consensus predictions. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we’ve aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Autolus Therapeutics after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Autolus Therapeutics’ eight analysts is for revenues of US$196.6m in 2027. This would reflect a sizeable 43% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 27% to US$0.70. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$192.4m and US$0.69 per share in losses.
See our latest analysis for Autolus Therapeutics
There were no major changes to the US$8.36consensus price target despite the higher revenue estimates, with the analysts seeming to believe that ongoing losses have a larger impact on the valuation. There’s another way to think about price targets though, and that’s to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Autolus Therapeutics at US$11.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$5.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Autolus Therapeutics’ past performance and to peers in the same industry. It’s pretty clear that there is an expectation that Autolus Therapeutics’ revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2027 expected to display 33% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 75% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 22% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Autolus Therapeutics is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year’s earnings. We have forecasts for Autolus Therapeutics going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example – Autolus Therapeutics has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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