Trefis Team
3 min read
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One way to size up the chance of AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) stock doubling from here is its work for the U.S. government. The shares closed at $34.50 on November 12, 2026. Even a double would leave the shares below their May 28, 2026 close of $133.09, their highest close in three years. You probably think of AST SpaceMobile as phone service from space, but its recently announced U.S. Space Force award is for sensing. The company also lost $628 million over the past twelve months. So what is AST SpaceMobile actually doing for the U.S. government?
What AST SpaceMobile Is Doing For The U.S. Government
AST SpaceMobile has secured defense work for space-based sensing to run alongside its phone service. Management said during a November 9, 2026 call that the company’s recent U.S. Space Force award for advanced sensing will produce approximately $100 million in revenue, calling it a small step toward a much larger Space Force program. The company now counts 16 U.S. government awards.
This government work is already appearing in financial results. Revenue in fiscal Q3 2026 reached $42.3 million, up 187.1% from a year earlier. Management said it came primarily from commercial gateway deliveries and U.S. government milestones. The government is already a paying customer, and the newest award pays AST SpaceMobile for something other than connecting phones.
Is AST SpaceMobile’s Government Business Big Enough Yet?
Measured against the company’s valuation, the government business remains small. The $100 million Space Force award equals about 1% of AST SpaceMobile’s $10.4 billion market value. Shareholders have also seen the stock fall 49.2% over the twelve months to November 12, 2026, while the S&P 500 returned 12.2%.
Still, management pointed to the government work when it spoke about the company’s revenue potential. On the call, management said it still believes the revenue opportunity is approaching $1 billion in the 12 months after commercial service launches. It feels increasingly confident about that, citing progress on the government and international fronts. That clock starts only when commercial service begins.
AST SpaceMobile Still Has To Get Satellites Into Orbit
AST SpaceMobile’s revenue plan remains subject to the successful launch and deployment of its BlueBird satellites for U.S. government applications, and to the contract milestones tied to them, management said.Third-quarter capital spending came in below management’s $350 million to $425 million guidance for the quarter, at about $310 million, primarily due to timing-related shifts in launch payments.
