Investors in Mainfreight Limited (NZSE:MFT) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.6% to close at NZ$71.27 following the release of its half-year results. The results were positive, with revenue coming in at NZ$3.1b, beating analyst expectations by 2.4%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there’s been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
After the latest results, the six analysts covering Mainfreight are now predicting revenues of NZ$6.20b in 2027. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 5.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 9.2% to NZ$3.39. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of NZ$5.99b and earnings per share (EPS) of NZ$3.07 in 2027. So it seems there’s been a definite increase in optimism about Mainfreight’s future following the latest results, with a decent improvement in the earnings per share forecasts in particular.
See our latest analysis for Mainfreight
Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of NZ$80.69, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. That’s not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Mainfreight, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at NZ$86.00 and the most bearish at NZ$70.75 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Mainfreight’s growth to accelerate, with the forecast 11% annualised growth to the end of 2027 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 1.5% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.9% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Mainfreight to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Mainfreight following these results. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year’s earnings. We have estimates – from multiple Mainfreight analysts – going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see our analysis of Mainfreight’s Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
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