Shareholders of Trend Micro Incorporated (TSE:4704) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 11% to JP¥7,214 following its latest quarterly results. Trend Micro reported JP¥75b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥66.29 beat expectations, being 8.9% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
After the latest results, the ten analysts covering Trend Micro are now predicting revenues of JP¥317.5b in 2027. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 6.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 18% to JP¥285. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥316.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥289 in 2027. The consensus analysts don’t seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there’s been no major change to their estimates.
View our latest analysis for Trend Micro
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥6,267, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Trend Micro, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥7,200 and the most bearish at JP¥5,000 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Trend Micro’s revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2027 being well below the historical 8.7% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Trend Micro is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there’s been no major change in the business’ prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year’s earnings. We have forecasts for Trend Micro going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we’ve spotted 2 warning signs for Trend Micro you should be aware of.
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