Morgan Stanley is not backing away from SpaceX. Analyst Adam Jonas reiterated his Overweight rating and $300 price target on Nov. 13. A level about 116% above the stock’s close that day, even as shares sat 31% below their June closing high and just 3% above the $135 IPO price.
Hours later, the rocket at the heart of his bull case delivered a mixed result. SpaceX’s attempt to catch the Starship booster failed, and it fell into the Gulf of Mexico and exploded, yet the spacecraft still reached orbit and released 26 Starlink satellites.
“Well, that certainly isn’t the news that we had hoped to hear for today,” said SpaceX launch commentator Kate Tice, as reported by The Associated Press.
Analyst Adam Jonas sticks with his call after a rough few months
Jonas had flagged the flight as a major moment for the stock. Before launch, he called it “one of the most significant potential catalysts in SpaceX’s nearly 25-year history,” with SpaceX aiming to catch both the Super Heavy booster and the Starship upper stage.
The launch also came as Bloomberg reported that SpaceX and Tesla could announce a merger by December or early 2027, with Musk saying both companies had formed independent board committees, according to Stocktwits.
Also read: Google’s SpaceX investment takes an unexpected turn
His valuation case leans on the long view. In a Nov. 3 note, Jonas said SpaceX traded at 17.6 times 2028 adjusted earnings, a hair below the S&P 500’s 17.7 times. “On FY28, SPCX trades cheaper than the S&P500. Interesting,” he wrote.
The analyst has been clear about what could break the thesis. In early October, with the stock near $159, he said shares could slide toward $100 within a year if AI momentum slowed. Starship hit a serious testing wall, or SpaceX needed a large equity raise, TheStreet reported.
The $300 target also depends heavily on artificial intelligence. Morgan Stanley assigns $170 of that value to SpaceX’s enterprise AI business, with connectivity making up most of the rest and the space unit contributing only a small slice.
How SpaceX shares lost their shine
The stock’s run since the IPO has been a roller coaster. SpaceX debuted at $135 on June 12, hit a record $225.64 on June 16, and was trading around $138 by midday on Nov. 13.
The slide started early. Just a month after its record listing, the largest IPO in history, the stock had already dropped to a record low, and analysts noted that price targets had “dislocated from its share price.”
Bulls did not flinch, with Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale starting coverage at Strong Buy with an $800 target, as reported by TheStreet.
