The all-important U.S. jobs report is looming, and the numbers could send ripples through the stock market. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast the U.S. economy added 190,000 jobs in May. That would be up from the 175,000 created in April. The report comes at a key moment for stock market investors. On one hand, Wall Street has been clamoring for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, so weaker-than-expected data would bolster those expectations. However, recent figures indicate the economy may be slowing down more than investors were bargaining for, meaning that a downbeat jobs number could put pressure on equities. On top of that, the S & P 500 is trading at record levels due in large measure to the unrelenting momentum in Nvidia. .SPX YTD mountain SPX year to date Against this backdrop, traders at JPMorgan broke down how they expect the stock market to react when the jobs report comes out Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, based on nine scenarios: Hot average hourly earnings growth + hot jobs growth: The S & P 500 would lose between 0.5% and 1.25% under this scenario as it removes expectations for a September rate cut, JPMorgan said. Hot jobs growth + in-line wage growth: JPMorgan traders said stagflation fears would ease under this outcome and “keeps the Soft Landing narrative alive and could morph into Goldilocks demand on the mix of jobs.” The S & P 500 rises 0.5% to 1% under this scenario. Hot jobs growth + weaker-than-expected wage growth: The S & P 500 would advance 0.25% to 0.75% in this event, the traders said. It’s a “positive outcome but upside is less robust as this likely means that a slew of part-time or low-income jobs are added.” In-line jobs growth + strong wage growth: This outcome indicates inflation persists given tight labor market conditions. JPMorgan traders expect the S & P 500 to lose 1% to 1.5% under this outcome. Employment expansion matches expectations as does wage growth: This scenario would signal the economy is normalizing rather than deteriorating, JPMorgan traders said. The S & P 500 would trade between flat and up 0.5% under this outcome. Jobs growth in line + weaker-than-expected wage expansion: This is a “slightly positive outcome” that will ultimately increase the odds of a September rate cut. JPMorgan expects the S & P 500 to rise 0.5% to 1%. Disappointing jobs growth + hotter-than-expected wage expansion: JPMorgan traders think this would be the worst outcome for market bulls, with the S & P 500 losing 1.25% to 2%. “This would argue for a stagflation playbook, similar to early April,” they said. Weaker-than-expected jobs growth + in-line wage growth: The S & P 500 would fall as much as 0.5% under this scenario, even as Treasury yields drop and investors move back into megacap tech stocks, according to JPMorgan. Jobs and wages miss estimates: Stocks would have a muted reaction to this outcome, as recession fears would increase, but rate cuts would remain on the table. JPMorgan expects the S & P 500 to rise, or fall, as much as 0.25%.
Trading the jobs report: Where JPMorgan sees the market going based on these scenarios
Jun 6, 2024
