Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Set to Open Down; Jobs Report; Nvidia, Tesla, Intel, Frontier; Recession Fears; Fed Rate Hopes

For live coverage an analysis of the jobs report, click here.

Stock futures were dropping to start a big day for the market, with August jobs numbers set to determine if shares can break out of their early September slump. Investors might still be scarred by the events of a month ago, when weaker-than-expected payrolls data triggered a big selloff.

The three main U.S. indexes looked set to slip at the opening bell. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 125 points, or 0.3%. S&P 500 futures fell 0.6%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 1.0%. The tech-heavy gauge had bucked the trend by rising on Thursday, powered higher–as has so often been the case–by the “Magnificent Seven” group of megacap stocks.

This week has been dominated by economic data–and the Labor Department is set to cap that off by publishing the August nonfarm payrolls report at 8.30 a.m. Eastern time Economists expect the release to show the U.S. added 160,000 jobs last month, according to FactSet, up from 114,000 in July.

In early August, stocks tumbled after a soft jobs number sparked concerns that the U.S. could be lurching for a recession–and investors will be hoping Thursday’s private payrolls figure, which came in way below expectations, isn’t a sign of another weak report.

That data “doesn’t paint a great picture for today’s main event, the August non-farm payrolls report,” Hargreaves Lansdown head of equity research Derren Nathan said. “If growth meets or beats forecasts of 160,000 there may be something of a relief rally, but any miss could be punished harshly.”

The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a weighted basket of six other currencies, was also sliding ahead of Friday’s jobs report, likely reflecting investors’ expectation that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates more aggressively on signs of labor market weakness. When U.S. borrowing costs fall, the buck tends to become less attractive to foreign investors who can find higher yields elsewhere.

Oil prices edged higher, having tumbled this week on worries about sluggish Chinese demand for crude. Brent rose 0.3% to $72.87 a barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate U.S. benchmark climbed 0.2% to $69.31 a barrel.

Bond yields fell slightly over the past 24 hours. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 3.703%, and the yield on the 2-year note was 3.708%.

Oil prices were edging higher on Friday but are still on track for weekly losses following OPEC+’s decision to delay its planned output hikes by two months after crude futures dropped to their lowest levels this year.

The group of oil producing countries agreed to extend voluntary production cuts to the end of November, easing worries over a market surplus, but failed to address broader concerns over global demand.

“Markets appear to be underwhelmed with the move,” ING analysts said in a note to clients. “The issue is that the oil balance is in surplus over 2025, suggesting that prices are likely to remain under pressure without OPEC+ taking longer term action.”

Brent crude and WTI were trading 0.5% higher at $73.02 and $69.47 a barrel, respectively, but are down more than 5% on the week.

The dollar falls to a one-week low ahead of today’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which is considered key for determining the scope of expected interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

The report could be decisive for whether the Fed delivers a 50 basis points rate cut at the September 18 meeting, Danske Bank analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen said in a note.

The dollar could rise if the data show a recovery in payrolls growth, an unchanged unemployment rate and stable earnings growth, she said. “However, the dollar may face downward pressure in the coming month as the Fed initiates its cutting cycle, and risk sentiment could remain positive.”

The DXY dollar index hit a low of 100.8880.