Veteran analyst who forecast Palantir stocks rally makes surprising decision

Sep 18, 2024
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Your attention, please: Alex Karp has something to say.

The co-founder and CEO of Palantir Technologies  (PLTR)  recently appeared on HBO’s Real Time with Bill Maher, where he extolled the virtues of living in America.

Related: Palantir stock surges on huge S&P 500 decision

“I was viewed as the Frankenstein monster,” Karp said. “I don’t come from wealth. And I get the opportunity to prove myself. No one in this country cares how crazy you are if you deliver.”

“The crowd went bananas,” according to TheStreet Pro’s Ed Ponsi, who watched the interview and wondered whether Karp was following in the footsteps of Tesla’s  (TSLA)  Elon Musk and Apple’s  (AAPL)  Steve Jobs to become the next rockstar CEO.

“His interview was both mesmerizing and contradictory,” Ponsi said. “The co-founder and CEO of Palantir put on a brilliant performance, even as he struggled to coherently explain what it is his company actually does. No matter. This was Karp’s moment on the big stage.”

“Like Jimi Hendrix at Monterey or Bob Dylan at Newport, Karp has just entered the general public’s consciousness,” he added.

Alex Karp, chief executive of Palantir Technologies.

<p>Bloomberg/Getty Images</p>
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<div><figcaption>Alex Karp, chief executive of Palantir Technologies.</p>
<p>Bloomberg/Getty Images</p>
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<h2>Analyst ‘on sidelines’ with Palantir</h2>
<p>Ponsi noted that several years ago Karp made “a Bono-level proclamation” — referring to the U2 frontman — when he said that “we will be the most important software company in the world.”</p>
<p>“Now, everybody is catching on,” Ponsi said. “Karp is becoming ‘that weird software guy,” even among folks who aren’t focused on investing and trading.”</p>
<p><strong><a data-ylk=Related: Analysts respond to Palantir’s entry into the S&P 500

Like Jobs and Musk, he said, Karp’s products are revolutionary.

“Like those rock stars before him, he now embodies his company,” Ponsi said. “Jobs was Apple. Musk is Tesla. And now, for better or worse, Karp is Palantir.”

This has been quite a rocking time for Palantir, which went public in 2020 and has added more than $35 billion in market value over the past year.

The artificial-intelligence-focused data-analytics company, which caters to commercial and government clients, is scheduled to join the S&P 500 on Sept. 23, replacing American Airlines.

On Sept. 12 Citi analyst Tyler Radke affirmed his neutral rating on Palantir with a $30 price target after meeting with Chief Financial Officer Dave Glazer, according to The Fly.

The company remains upbeat on its artificial intelligence platform momentum, with consistent macro commentary, Radke told investors in a research note.

However, the analyst said the company’s pending inclusion in the S&P 500 Index saw a 15% stock-price uptick, which increased Palantir’s valuation to one of the most expensive names in software: a multiple of 25 times next 12 months’ enterprise value to sales.

Radke said that he was on the sidelines, noting that the company’s effort to monetize its AI platform is still early. Bookings across commercial are strong while the government business is “lumpy” heading into the elections, the analyst said.

More recently, on Sept. 17 Palantir announced a multiyear, multimillion-dollar contract for its AI platform with Nebraska Medicine to improve the quality of health care in the state through “transformational technologies.”

Analyst: Palantir ‘is for my grandchildren’

In less than a year of working with Palantir, Nebraska Medicine so far has implemented more than 10 AI-platform applications, improving patient throughput, expanding claims reimbursements and managing patient care.

On the same day, Bank of America added Palantir to its US 1 list, the investment firm’s compilation of the best U.S. investment ideas among those the firm covers.

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Analyst Mariana Perez Mora reiterated her buy rating and $50 price target on the shares.

TheStreet Pro’s Stephen Guilfoyle is a longtime supporter of Palantir. He told readers that the company’s shares “kissed our $36 target price and backed off a bit, closing at $35.50” on Sept. 17.

“Longtime readers know that unlike what you see on TV with my ‘trader” colleagues (quotation marks intentional), one of my longstanding rules for myself is that I must act in some way when a target price gets taken out,” he said.

“Now, long term I don’t yet want to wind down my long position in PLTR.” Guilfoyle added. “This stock is for my children, grandchildren and the generations of Guilfoyles whom I will never meet. That does not mean that I am inert and unable to use my head to try to improve my own performance.”

The veteran trader said that “thanks to its recent moves and my additions on dips,” Palantir is currently his fifth-largest single position in dollar terms and that he plans to cancel his $36 target price for now.

“Remember, the worst two weeks of the year for stocks most years tend to straddle late September and early October,” Guilfoyle said. “When the stock dips, and it will, I will be waiting with open arms to refill my top-five weighting.”

“Yes, trading in this way, recorded in [first-in-first-out] fashion, will increase net basis,” he added. “So what? This game is about creating capital … making money. Looking pretty is nice. Kicking tail is much nicer.”

Related: Veteran fund manager sees world of pain coming for stocks

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