US stock futures drifted lower on Thursday as investors waited for the latest reading on consumer inflation to help set expectations for the path of interest rates.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) slipped 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures (^GSPC) shed roughly 0.2%, after both clinched fresh record highs. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) also edged down 0.2%.
The markets are bracing for an important test with Thursday’s report on the consumer price index for September. The data is in higher focus than usual as investors puzzle over the chances of a “no landing” for the economy, after last week’s jobs report revived worries about inflation flaring up again.
While stocks would likely shrug off a slightly hotter-than-expected CPI print, a sizeable surprise could shake up markets, analysts said. Also, it could upend expectations around the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting plans — already in flux thanks to minutes from its last meeting.
Read more: What the Fed rate cut means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards
Traders now see a 21% chance that the Fed holds rates steady in November, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Just a week ago, the odds of no cut were at 0%, as the market heeded policymakers’ message and prepared for a 25-basis-point reduction.
The CPI report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show annual headline inflation at 2.3% and a monthly rate of 0.1% in September, down from August’s levels.
