JPMorgan’s trading desk has some ideas on how much the stock market might move following Friday’s all-important job report. Friday’s data on nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate and wages are the last major economic release before next week’s presidential election and Federal Reserve policy meeting. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect jobs to have grown by 100,000 jobs in October and for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.1%. JPMorgan has prepared for several scenarios for the jobs number and how it could move stocks. Here’s each of them, including how likely the trading desk thinks each one is to take place: More than 200,000 jobs added; 5% chance: The S & P 500 can do anything between losing 0.25% to gaining 0.5%. Equity markets would likely take a hit immediately as bonds move higher, but that negative impact should fade away over the following days. Between 120,000 and 200,000 jobs added; 30% chance: This is the so-called Goldilocks print. If there’s no wage increases, it can signal steady or higher job growth without inflation. The S & P 500 should add between 0.5% and 0.75%. Between 80,000 and 120,000 jobs added; 40% chance: This is the most likely scenario and one that should keep the outlook for growth unchanged. It should also keep expectations in tact for GDP growth and another 50 basis points of interest rate cuts in 2024. The S & P 500 should finish the day somewhere between flat and up 0.5%. Between 20,000 and 80,000 jobs added; 20% chance: While this outcome could cause a growth scare, the firm said that could be mitigated by hopes of stronger rate cuts. Investors may also attribute a weak figure like this to impacts of hurricanes and strikes. In this scenario, the S & P 500 would slide between 0.25% and 0.5%. Below 20,000 jobs added; 5% chance: This should catalyze a large sell-off as a negative nonfarm payrolls print typically front runs a recession. The S & P 500 should pull back somewhere within the range of 0.75% and 1.5%.
How the stock market will react to Friday’s jobs report, according to JPMorgan
Oct 31, 2024
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