It may be make-or-break time for the stock market, based on the price charts. BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky says the S & P 500 has gone a full calendar year without making a downside test of its 200-day moving average. That’s a key level watched by traders to gauge an asset’s longer-term momentum and trendline. The S & P 500 closed at 6,066.44 on Monday. That’s 7% above the 200-day moving average of 5,665.61. “Recall that every time since 1990 SPX has gone a calendar year without testing its 200 DMA, it did so in the following year with 3 of 5 times occurring in Q1,” Krinsky said in a note. He added that another factor is conspiring against the benchmark at the moment, making a downside test more likely: worsening seasonality. “Seasonals quickly turn negative as we head into next week, and we are seeing some more deterioration out of pockets of consumer stocks,” he said. “As we get into next week, the seasonal backdrop turns negative through mid-March.” “We continue to believe the clock is ticking on a 200 DMA test,” according to Krinsky, who also pointed out that the S & P 500 has been unable to make a meaningful move above 6,100. This challenging technical backdrop comes as traders try to navigate an evolving global trade landscape, which could pressure corporate profits. On Monday, President Donald Trump signed an executive order slapping new tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports to the U.S., with those levies are set to take effect in early March. The European Union responded by saying it will retaliate with duties of its own on U.S. products if Trump targets goods from the 27-nation trading bloc. Elsewhere Tuesday morning on Wall Street, KeyBanc upgraded Steel Dynamics , citing the latest U.S. tariffs as a catalyst. “We believe STLD’s Sinton operations are finally turning the corner operationally after losing nearly $200M in 2024 given improving upstream yields, lower major maintenance costs, higher production, and improving mix,” analyst Philip Gibbs said, referring to the company’s flat roll steel mill in Sinton, Texas. “STLD is also uniquely suited to be the primary sheet volume market share beneficiary of declining prospective import activity, notably in galvanized sheet.”
The ‘clock is ticking’ on stalled stock market to make a move or break down, says chart analyst
Feb 11, 2025
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