A Look At AeroVironment (AVAV) Valuation After Fresh Analyst Coverage And Defense Growth Focus

Recent interest in AeroVironment (AVAV) has picked up after several analyst reports framed the company as well positioned in drones, counter drone systems, and space related defense technologies amid rising global security spending.

See our latest analysis for AeroVironment.

At a share price of $265.46, AeroVironment has seen a 9.05% 7 day share price return following the recent analyst coverage and defense contract news, while its 67.12% 1 year total shareholder return signals that longer term momentum has been building despite a 32.43% 30 day share price pullback.

If this kind of defense technology story has your attention, it could be a good moment to see what else is moving in robotics and automation with our 34 robotics and automation stocks.

With AVAV trading at $265.46 against an average analyst target of about $378.70 and an indicated 9.26% intrinsic discount, along with strong 1-year returns, investors may question whether there is still a buying opportunity or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 5.2% Undervalued

Against AeroVironment’s last close of $265.46, the most followed narrative points to a fair value of $280.00, suggesting some remaining upside in the story.

Catalysts

The bull case for AVAV is not just about drones; it is about ubiquity. In 20th-century warfare, air superiority required multi-million dollar jets and years of pilot training. In 2026, air superiority is increasingly defined by “low cost” systems: cheap, smart, and expendable. AeroVironment owns the “gold standard” in this category. With the recent integration of BlueHalo, the company has transformed into a comprehensive “all-domain” provider, adding space, cyber, and directed energy (lasers) to its portfolio. Investors are essentially betting that AVAV will be to the 21st-century military what Boeing or Lockheed Martin was to the 20th.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what sits behind that price tag and discount rate? The narrative leans heavily on rapid earnings expansion, rising margins, and a premium future profit multiple usually reserved for high growth tech names.

Result: Fair Value of $280.00 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, you still need to weigh risks such as execution on the BlueHalo integration and the possibility of slower adoption of loitering munitions and counter drone systems.

Find out about the key risks to this AeroVironment narrative.

Another View: Multiples Paint a Tougher Picture

Our multiples check is less forgiving. At a P/S of 9.6x versus 4.2x for the US Aerospace & Defense group and a fair ratio of 4.1x, AeroVironment screens as expensive. That kind of gap can mean valuation risk if expectations cool, so what are you really paying for here?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

If this mix of optimism and concern around AeroVironment has you thinking, consider taking action while the details are fresh and weigh the company’s trade offs using 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If AeroVironment has sharpened your interest, do not stop here. Your next strong idea might sit just a screener away and you do not want to miss it.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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