Ambev S.A.’s (BVMF:ABEV3) Stock Has Shown A Decent Performance: Have Financials A Role To Play?

Ambev’s (BVMF:ABEV3) stock is up by 9.3% over the past three months. As most would know, long-term fundamentals have a strong correlation with market price movements, so we decided to look at the company’s key financial indicators today to determine if they have any role to play in the recent price movement. In this article, we decided to focus on Ambev’s ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company’s management is utilizing the company’s capital. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company’s shareholders.

See our latest analysis for Ambev

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders’ Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Ambev is:

15% = R$15b ÷ R$96b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The ‘return’ refers to a company’s earnings over the last year. So, this means that for every R$1 of its shareholder’s investments, the company generates a profit of R$0.15.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company’s future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or “retains”, and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Ambev’s Earnings Growth And 15% ROE

At first glance, Ambev’s ROE doesn’t look very promising. However, the fact that the company’s ROE is higher than the average industry ROE of 12%, is definitely interesting. This certainly adds some context to Ambev’s moderate 7.6% net income growth seen over the past five years. Bear in mind, the company does have a moderately low ROE. It is just that the industry ROE is lower. Hence there might be some other aspects that are causing earnings to grow. Such as- high earnings retention or the company belonging to a high growth industry.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Ambev’s growth is quite high when compared to the industry average growth of 4.6% in the same period, which is great to see.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Is ABEV3 fairly valued? This infographic on the company’s intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is Ambev Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

While Ambev has a three-year median payout ratio of 79% (which means it retains 21% of profits), the company has still seen a fair bit of earnings growth in the past, meaning that its high payout ratio hasn’t hampered its ability to grow.

Besides, Ambev has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Based on the latest analysts’ estimates, we found that the company’s future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 79%. Still, forecasts suggest that Ambev’s future ROE will rise to 19% even though the the company’s payout ratio is not expected to change by much.

Summary

Overall, we feel that Ambev certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Namely, its significant earnings growth, to which its moderate rate of return likely contributed. While the company is paying out most of its earnings as dividends, it has been able to grow its earnings in spite of it, so that’s probably a good sign. On studying current analyst estimates, we found that analysts expect the company to continue its recent growth streak. To know more about the company’s future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.