If this keeps up, the only place you’ll be able to find a human driver will be in a museum.
Perhaps that’s a slight exaggeration about the growth autonomous vehicles, but there have been some exciting things happening in the driverless car sector recently.
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In fact, the summer of ’24 has seen steady developments related to AVs in the U.S., according to S&P Global Mobility.
Google-backed (GOOGL) Waymo continues to be the leader, S&P said, and this was underscored by Uber’s (UBER) announcement on Sept. 13 that the ride-hailing company was expanding its partnership with Waymo to offer robo taxi rides in Austin, Texas, and Atlanta beginning in early 2025.
Uber will manage and dispatch a fleet of Waymo’s fully autonomous, all-electric Jaguar I-PACE vehicles that will grow to hundreds over time, the companies said.
S&P noted that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is investigating Waymo incidents related to potential for crash, property damage and incidents of collisions with “clearly visible” objects.
Tesla prototype spotted
Meanwhile, disruptions at General Motors’ (GM) Cruise AV division are proving to be a setback and, arguably, a situation where the lessons learned may leave the division in a better position, S&P said.
Founded in 2013, Cruise is looking to find its way back to U.S. roads after an accident in San Francisco last year forced the company to halt operations. Earlier this year, it resumed testing with safety drivers.
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Cruise will be offering its autonomous vehicles on Uber’s platform next year, the two companies said last month.
And then there’s Tesla (TSLA) , which is scheduled to debut its robotaxi on Oct. 10.
News outlets have been reporting that a camouflaged car driving around the Warner Bros. studio property recently was a robotaxi prototype in disguise.
Electrek reported that the photo was first posted to Reddit by u/boopitysmopp, who is said to be a lot employee at Warner Bros., although the post has since been removed, and the Reddit user has deleted their profile.
The yellow coloring looks to be automotive camouflage pasted onto the vehicle, along with additional pieces of bodywork to obscure the shape of the vehicle’s body.
“The October 2024 reveal is expected to answer a number of questions about Tesla’s readiness to deploy true self-driving vehicle technology, but developing the vehicle program would be a multi-year effort and is not expected before the 2026-27 time frame,” S&P Global Mobility said.
CEO Elon Musk has suggested that Tesla is considering an Air BnB-style or Uber-style deployment, where owners make their vehicles available to be rented through a Tesla site but own and maintain the vehicles.
Earlier this month, Tesla said its Full Self-Driving advanced driver-assistance software will be available in Europe and China next year, pending final regulatory approval.
Analyst resumes Tesla coverage
Musk has touted the profit potential of AI technologies, particularly with respect to the company’s ambition to offer self-driving software to its near 7 million global EV fleet. He also said that capital spending would likely rise to around $10 billion this year as a result.
Tesla continues to shift away from its traditional electric-vehicle-production roots and toward next-generation products, such as robotaxis, powered by the company’s artificial-intelligence technologies.
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Overall, electric vehicle registrations surged 18% in July compared with a year ago, driven by the success of newer models like the Tesla Cybertruck and the Honda Prologue, S&P Global Mobility said.
Tesla ended a five-month slump with a 1.2% increase in registrations, bolstered by 5,175 deliveries of the highly anticipated Cybertruck launched in November, CBT News reported.
The surge in registrations reflects the growing appeal of EVs, aided by substantial incentives.
With all this going on, investment firms have been reviewing their price targets for Tesla, including Guggenheim Partners. The firm boosted its price target for the company’s shares to $153 from $134 on Sept. 13, while keeping a sell rating on the stock, according to The Fly.
Analyst Ron Jewsikow said the firm rolls its valuation basis forward one year in conjunction with “modestly improved demand trends” as it is updating its delivery and margin forecasts to incorporate quarter-to-date data, a brief analysis of the used vehicle market for Tesla and detailed regional assumptions.
The “path of least resistance into the 10/10 robotaxi event is likely higher, with deliveries looking like a non-event,” but following the robotaxi event, investors are likely to refocus on near- and medium-term fundamentals, Guggenheim said.
Tesla shares which closed at $230.29, up 0.2%, are still down 7.3% year-to-date and off 15.1% from a year ago.
Deutsche Bank analyst Ed Yu resumed coverage of Tesla on Sept. 9 with a buy rating and a $295 price target.
At the core, the analyst said, “does not see Tesla as an automaker but rather a technology platform attempting to reshape multiple industries, deserving of a unique type of valuation framework.”
Tesla structurally already has a big lead in battery electric vehicles, or BEVs, especially as it relates to scale/cost, and commands outsized brand value globally, says the analyst.
While acknowledging that near-term automotive deliveries and margins have been softer, Yu said that he views this as temporary ahead of new models and refreshes coming in the pipeline.
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