Apple Inc. (AAPL) Stock Forecasts

Summary

The Federal Reserve cut the fed funds rate by 50 basis points (bps), energizing buyers for about 45 minutes yesterday. Then, as often happens, investors faded the first move, stocks were lower into the close, and currently the futures market is through the roof. End of day, the Fed’s target is now 4.75%-5.25%. By the last 2024 meeting on December 18, there is a 50% probability that the funds range will be 4.00%-4.25% and a 32% chance the target will be 4.25%-4.50%. Treasury yields across the curve ticked higher, mostly in the five- and 10-year yields, which rose 30 to 40 bps. Market yields have been falling since April in anticipation of a slowing economy and the rate. We are now in the last half of September, and the next two weeks historically are the worst of the year for stocks. Did we front-load those losses during the first four trading days of the month or does the market have pain ahead? Short term, it’s hard to get a good feel for what will play out. But we feel confident that the fourth quarter will be kind to investors. The last quarter of the year, especially the months of November and December, are typically two of the strongest months of the year. The other nagging question (and keeping in mind that there are multiple economic reports ahead, 3