Summary
- US economic data remains resilient, with no imminent recession signals; recent uptick in manufacturing and robust labor market support near-term optimism.
- Soft data is improving, financial conditions are easing, and EPS growth is likely to meet expectations, supporting a bullish short- to medium-term stock outlook.
- Valuations are high, and risks include potential multiple de-rating, rising inflation, and large-scale debt refinancing in 2024-2025, which could drive future volatility.
- Despite medium-term headwinds, current sentiment and positioning are bullish, and the market should hold up well unless earnings or macro data disappoint later in 2025.

Jonathan Kitchen
For the most part, hard economic data for the US economy continues to be resilient. In the face of some of the weakest soft data we have seen in decades, there is yet no sign the tariff turmoil has translated
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