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editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)
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The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting analysts have soured majorly on the business.
Following the downgrade, the consensus from 19 analysts covering BioNTech is for revenues of €2.1b in 2025, implying a sizeable 22% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching €5.04 per share. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €2.5b and losses of €3.40 per share in 2025. Ergo, there’s been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to this year’s revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.
View our latest analysis for BioNTech
There was no major change to the consensus price target of €129, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so – it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic BioNTech analyst has a price target of €158 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €101. This shows there is still some diversity in estimates, but analysts don’t appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 22% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 8.1% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 20% annually for the foreseeable future. It’s pretty clear that BioNTech’s revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that BioNTech’s revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. We’re also surprised to see that the price target went unchanged. Still, deteriorating business conditions (assuming accurate forecasts!) can be a leading indicator for the stock price, so we wouldn’t blame investors for being more cautious on BioNTech after the downgrade.
