Most readers would already know that China Mobile’s (HKG:941) stock increased by 6.7% over the past three months. As most would know, long-term fundamentals have a strong correlation with market price movements, so we decided to look at the company’s key financial indicators today to determine if they have any role to play in the recent price movement. In this article, we decided to focus on China Mobile’s ROE.
Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company’s management is utilizing the company’s capital. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.
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How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?
The formula for ROE is:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders’ Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for China Mobile is:
10% = CN¥133b ÷ CN¥1.3t (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).
The ‘return’ is the income the business earned over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every HK$1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn HK$0.10 in profit.
Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?
Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or “retains”, and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.
China Mobile’s Earnings Growth And 10% ROE
To begin with, China Mobile seems to have a respectable ROE. Even when compared to the industry average of 12% the company’s ROE looks quite decent. Despite the moderate return on equity, China Mobile has posted a net income growth of 3.7% over the past five years. We reckon that a low growth, when returns are moderate could be the result of certain circumstances like low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.
As a next step, we compared China Mobile’s net income growth with the industry and found that the company has a similar growth figure when compared with the industry average growth rate of 3.7% in the same period.
The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. If you’re wondering about China Mobile’s’s valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.
Is China Mobile Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?
The high three-year median payout ratio of 61% (that is, the company retains only 39% of its income) over the past three years for China Mobile suggests that the company’s earnings growth was lower as a result of paying out a majority of its earnings.
Additionally, China Mobile has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company’s management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Upon studying the latest analysts’ consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 70% of its profits over the next three years. Therefore, the company’s future ROE is also not expected to change by much with analysts predicting an ROE of 11%.
Summary
Overall, we feel that China Mobile certainly does have some positive factors to consider. The company has grown its earnings moderately as previously discussed. Still, the high ROE could have been even more beneficial to investors had the company been reinvesting more of its profits. As highlighted earlier, the current reinvestment rate appears to be quite low. That being so, the latest analyst forecasts show that the company will continue to see an expansion in its earnings. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company’s fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst’s forecasts page for the company.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
