Dollar Rises With December Fed Cut Now in Doubt: Markets Wrap

Nov 15, 2024
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(Bloomberg) — US and European equity futures fell after Jerome Powell indicated the Federal Reserve was in no rush to cut interest rates.

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Contracts for the Euro Stoxx 50 Index were down 0.7%, while those for the S&P 500 extended losses after the benchmark closed 0.6% lower in the US. The moves contrast gains in Asia, where MSCI’s regional index headed for its first gain this week following signs of resilience in China’s economy.

A gauge of the dollar was set to rise more than 1.4% for the week despite edging lower on Friday. The greenback has rallied in the wake of Donald Trump’s election win, and the latest boost came from Chair Powell’s comments that the Fed may take its time easing policy. More clarity on the Fed’s path could emerge later Friday as the US releases retail sales data and a host of Fed officials are set to speak.

“Admittedly the US dollar is pricing in a lot of Trump policy without timing or implementation detail, meaning it’s more about embracing a sweeping ‘narrative’,” said Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “Markets risk over-egging this story. The rise in the US dollar and US yields is creating fresh restraint, tariffs might be imposed via Congressional legislation which can have a moderating impact, and the first-order hit could fall more on profit margins than final prices.”

US two-year yields steadied after surging in the previous session as traders pared back their expectations for an interest-rate cut in December. The yen reversed its losses after Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said authorities are monitoring the forex market.

In Asia, a closely-watched monthly activity report from China showed retail sales expanded at the strongest pace in eight months and property prices fell at a slower pace. The CSI 300 Index, a benchmark for onshore shares, fell despite the upbeat data. Focus is also on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s earnings later Friday after another Chinese consumption bellwether JD.com Inc posted a moderate expansion in revenue.

China’s retail sales were “pretty good,” and a result of the central bank’s stimulus policy in late September, according to Jason Chan, senior investment strategist for Bank of East Asia. ““Fiscal stimulus is on the way, probably more details would be announced in December.”

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