A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Aug. 4, 2022.
Source: NYSE
Stock futures climbed in overnight trading Sunday as the market seeks to rebound into the Thanksgiving holiday week after a slide that’s knocked the air out of this year’s AI bull run.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 200 points. S&P 500 futures rose 0.6% and Nasdaq-100 futures increased 0.8%. The stock market is closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving Day, and it shuts down early at 1 p.m. ET on Friday.
Stocks are attempting to build on a strong rebound that started on Friday, after the head of the New York Federal Reserve left the door open to a December interest rate cut. Major averages have still stumbled sharply since the month began, pressured by a reconsideration of sky-high valuations across artificial intelligence-linked names that had powered much of 2025’s market gains.
The S&P 500 slipped 2% last week, bringing its November decline to 3.5%. The Nasdaq Composite shed 2.7% in the prior week and is down 6.1% for the month. The 30-stock Dow fell 1.9% last week and is off 2.8% month-to-date.
The final stretch of November may be no easier. With trading volumes expected to thin out in the coming days and few meaningful catalysts ahead of the Fed’s December policy meeting, volatility could pick up.
“Investors hate noise. They crave certainty, and the market simply cannot deliver that right now,” Mark Malek, CIO at Siebert Financial, said in a note.
Key macro events this week include October U.S. retail sales and October Producer Price Index data on Tuesday, both of which could help shape expectations heading into the Fed’s final meeting of the year.
Traders price in a higher chance of a December rate cut
Expectations for a December rate cut jumped noticeably after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams signaled he sees room for “further adjustment” to interest rates.
“I view monetary policy as being modestly restrictive, although somewhat less so than before our recent actions,” he said in remarks for a speech in Santiago, Chile. “Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral, thereby maintaining the balance between the achievement of our two goals.”
Futures markets now assign almost a 70% probability that the Fed will trim rates by another quarter point at its final meeting of the year on Dec. 10 — up from about 44% a week earlier, CME FedWatch data show. The Fed’s benchmark rate currently sits between 3.75% and 4.00%.
— Yun Li
Uncertainty around government economic data
Investors are grappling with the shaky state of government economic data.
On Friday, traders learned the Fed won’t receive a key inflation reading before its next rate decision, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics scrapped the release of October’s consumer price index.
November’s CPI report — originally set for Dec. 10 — has also been pushed to Dec. 18, coming after the Fed meets.
— Yun Li
