Dow’s (NYSE:DOW) stock up by 8.0% over the past three months. As most would know, long-term fundamentals have a strong correlation with market price movements, so we decided to look at the company’s key financial indicators today to determine if they have any role to play in the recent price movement. In this article, we decided to focus on Dow’s ROE.
Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.
See our latest analysis for Dow
How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?
Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders’ Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Dow is:
3.5% = US$660m ÷ US$19b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).
The ‘return’ is the income the business earned over the last year. That means that for every $1 worth of shareholders’ equity, the company generated $0.03 in profit.
Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?
So far, we’ve learned that ROE is a measure of a company’s profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or “retains” for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don’t have the same features.
Dow’s Earnings Growth And 3.5% ROE
It is quite clear that Dow’s ROE is rather low. Even when compared to the industry average of 13%, the ROE figure is pretty disappointing. Despite this, surprisingly, Dow saw an exceptional 23% net income growth over the past five years. Therefore, there could be other reasons behind this growth. For instance, the company has a low payout ratio or is being managed efficiently.
As a next step, we compared Dow’s net income growth with the industry, and pleasingly, we found that the growth seen by the company is higher than the average industry growth of 14%.
Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company’s expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock’s future looks promising or ominous. Is DOW fairly valued? This infographic on the company’s intrinsic value has everything you need to know.
Is Dow Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?
Dow’s significant three-year median payout ratio of 51% (where it is retaining only 49% of its income) suggests that the company has been able to achieve a high growth in earnings despite returning most of its income to shareholders.
Additionally, Dow has paid dividends over a period of five years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Based on the latest analysts’ estimates, we found that the company’s future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 56%. Still, forecasts suggest that Dow’s future ROE will rise to 18% even though the the company’s payout ratio is not expected to change by much.
Conclusion
On the whole, we do feel that Dow has some positive attributes. While no doubt its earnings growth is pretty substantial, we do feel that the reinvestment rate is pretty low, meaning, the earnings growth number could have been significantly higher had the company been retaining more of its profits. That being so, the latest analyst forecasts show that the company will continue to see an expansion in its earnings. To know more about the company’s future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.
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Find out whether Dow is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
