European markets head for lower open with eyes on Israel and Iran; rate repricing remains in focus

Apr 19, 2024
european-markets-head-for-lower-open-with-eyes-on-israel-and-iran;-rate-repricing-remains-in-focus

European stock markets fell on Friday, rounding off a week in which escalating tensions in the Middle East and repricing of interest rate expectations have been in focus.

The regional Stoxx 600 index was 0.8% lower at 9:50 a.m. in London, with most sectors in the red. After a strong start to 2024, the index is heading for its first monthly loss since October.

Retail stocks lost 1.5% after U.K. retail sales underperfomed in March, coming in flat on the previous month.

In the latest back-and-forth between the countries, Israel launched a limited direct military attack on Iranian soil early Friday morning, a source familiar with the situation told NBC News.

Oil prices gained on the news, along with safe haven asset gold.

Investors are also monitoring a slew of commentary on the path of interest rates emerging from the International Monetary Fund’s Spring Meetings in New York.

European Central Bank voting member François Villeroy de Galhau told CNBC on Thursday that the institution should cut interest rates in June to avoid falling behind the inflation curve, in a message that echoed ECB President Christine Lagarde.

But markets have become significantly less confident there will be a June cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve or Bank of England, after two hotter-than-expected inflation prints.

UK retail sales flat in March

People buying vegatables from a fruit and veg stall at Stroud Farmers Market on 30th March 2024 in Stroud, United Kingdom. 

Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty Images

U.K. retail sales growth stalled in March, figures published by the Office for National Statistics showed Friday.

Sales volumes were flat month-on-month, following 0.1% growth in February. Volumes in food stores fell 0.7% while non-store retail sales, which includes online shops, stalls and markets, declined 1.5%.

Alex Kerr, assistant economist at Capital Economics, said that although the monthly reading was worse than forecast, sales volumes still rose by 1.9% quarter-on-quarter over the first three months of the year, “bringing the retail recession to an end.”

“As inflation falls, we still think rising real household incomes will support retail activity throughout 2024,” Kerr added.

— Jenni Reid

Europe stocks open lower

European stock markets opened in the red on Friday, with the Stoxx 600 index down by 0.8% at 8:30 a.m. in London.

Major bourses were lower, with Germany’s DAX down 1.1%, France’s CAC 40 down 0.86% and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 down 0.6%.

Stock Chart IconStock chart icon

hide content

Stoxx 600 index.

— Jenni Reid

Safe haven assets rise after unconfirmed reports of explosions in Iran; gold hits fresh record

Safe haven assets rose following reports of unconfirmed explosions in Iran, with the country’s Fars news agency reportedly saying that explosions were heard near the airport at the country’s central Isfahan city, but the reason was unknown.

Spot gold prices surged to a fresh all-time high of 2,411.09 per ounce, while the yen strengthened 0.45% to 153.93 against the U.S. dollar.

Prices of bitcoin fell 1.44% to $60,186, according to Coin Metrics data.

— Lim Hui Jie

Oil prices up 3% after reports of explosions in Iran

Oil prices jumped more than 3% after unconfirmed reports of explosions near the Iranian city of Isfahan.

Iran’s Fars news agency reported that explosions were heard near the Isfahan airport, but emphasized that the reason was unknown.

Global benchmark Brent traded 2.86% higher at $89.60 a barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 2.83% to $85.05 per barrel.

—Lee Ying Shan

CNBC Pro: Here are the 6 stocks that rise when Nvidia shares fall

CNBC Pro: As India heads to the polls, the pros name 8 top stocks to buy

Bank of Latvia Governor Mārtiņš Kazāks shares his views on rate cuts

ECB policymaker says we are at peak rates — and the probability of a June cut is high

— Katrina Bishop

ECB should cut interest rates in June, policymaker says

European Central Bank should cut in June to avoid falling behind inflation curve, policymaker says

The European Central Bank should cut interest rates in June to avoid falling behind the inflation curve, according to policymaker François Villeroy de Galhau.

“The question is the next Governing Council which will be early June … and here barring a major surprise we should cut rates because we are now confident enough and increasingly confident about the disinflationary path in the euro area,” Bank of France Governor Villeroy told CNBC’s Karen Tso on Thursday.

Read more here.

— Sam Meredith

Leave a comment