Goldman Sachs is flashing warning lights for the U.S. stock market as 2025 kicks off, pointing to a 30% chance of major corrections. Think stretched valuations, stubborn inflation, and a political wildcard in President-elect Donald Trump, who’s already eyeing fresh tariffs. Historically, when drawdown risks climb past 35%, markets take a beatingand while we’re not quite there yet, the S&P 500 (SPY) is looking wobbly. After a roaring 23% gain in 2024, the index is up just 0.6% so far this year, but that momentum could evaporate if policy and inflation pressures continue to mount.
The real issue? Stocks are priced for perfection, according to Goldman. Translation: there’s no room for mistakes. Growth? Baked in. Tech? Dominating everything. Five U.S. giants now make up a quarter of the market. But with inflation pivoting upward and trade policy uncertainty hitting new highs, cracks are forming. And while the macro environment still supports equities, Goldman warns a combo of earnings misses, geopolitical shocks, or inflation surprises could send markets into a tailspin. Investors banking on smooth sailing might want to rethink their portfolios.
So, how do you protect yourself? Goldman suggests hedging for the storm. Short-dated S&P 500 put spreads could guard against near-term corrections triggered by earnings misses or political turmoil. If you’re more worried about a deep recession, longer-dated puts might be your ticket. And for those keeping an eye on interest rates and trade risks, hybrid strategies like S&P 500 down/EURUSD down hybrids are a smart move. Bottom line: the stakes are high, and complacency isn’t an option. Stay nimble, and don’t get caught flat-footed.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
