Summary
The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield is near 4.5%. The yield was headed toward the key 5% threshold in April on hotter-than-expected inflation data, but turned lower after the May nonfarm payrolls report indicated that the jobs market may be cooling. The Federal Reserve appears finished raising interest rates for this monetary tightening cycle, and Wall Street is eagerly seeking hints that the fed funds rate may start inching down. Still, Chairman Powell is maintaining a cautious tone. Argus Fed watcher Kevin Heal is holding on to his projection that the first rate cut is likely in the second half of this year. The U.K. is seeing a similar trend, with a 10-year benchmark bond yield at 4.2%. Sentiment there is also growing that rates might be elevated for longer than initially expected, as the U.K. has experienced rampant inflation over the past few years. Elsewhere, political uncertainty in South Africa and Brazil is keeping sovereign-debt interest rates near 10%. Russian sovereign-debt yields are above 14%, up 200 basis
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