Simply Wall St
5 min read
Freeport-McMoRan’s stock has seen its Fair Value Estimate rise slightly, from $47.71 to $47.87 per share, alongside a modest increase in the Discount Rate. This adjustment reflects both positive analyst sentiment regarding long-term copper demand, as well as lingering concerns about operational risks and broader market volatility. Stay tuned to learn how investors can monitor further shifts in the company’s outlook and remain informed about the evolving narrative.
Analyst coverage of Freeport-McMoRan in recent months has featured a range of updated views, highlighting both constructive and cautious outlooks. Below, we summarize key bullish and bearish takeaways based on the latest research from notable firms.
š Bullish Takeaways
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Several analysts have upgraded Freeport-McMoRan or affirmed positive ratings, citing improved clarity in company outlook, attractive valuation, and leverage to anticipated strength in copper and gold prices. Scotiabank, UBS, Citi, BofA, HSBC, and Wells Fargo are among those voicing more optimistic stances.
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Wells Fargo recently initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $47 price target, highlighting anticipated tightness in the 2026 copper market due to supply disruptions and positioning Freeport as a top pick due to higher commodity prices offsetting production setbacks.
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UBS increased its price target to $48 (from $42.50) and upgraded Freeport-McMoRan to Buy, noting the company’s favorable risk-reward profile.
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BofA raised its price target to $58 from $50 while maintaining a Buy rating, recognizing that North American demand could compensate for slowing Chinese consumption.
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Other supportive commentary has emphasized Freeport’s strong balance sheet, flexible management amid operational challenges, and the likelihood of share re-rating if copper prices stay elevated.
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Key reservations among bullish analysts include potential valuation concerns. Some believe near-term upside may already be priced in, and that execution around mining restarts remains a focus.
š» Bearish Takeaways
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A number of firms have turned more cautious following operational incidents at Grasberg, lowering ratings and price targets out of concerns for production guidance and near-term profitability.
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Morgan Stanley, BMO Capital, and Raymond James all lowered their price targets, with Morgan Stanley shifting to $44 (from $46), BMO Capital to $47 (from $48), and Raymond James to $45 (from $46), pointing to revised expectations after company guidance and production plan updates.
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BofA downgraded Freeport-McMoRan to Neutral in the wake of the Grasberg incident, lowering its target to $42 from $50 and describing the operational challenges as an overhang that could last through early 2026.
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Freedom Capital and Scotiabank have both downgraded the shares after the incident, citing lowered copper output, persistent near-term operational risk, and a lack of clarity on recovery timelines or free cash flow inflection points.
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Bearish analysts consistently highlight the impact of jurisdictional risk, especially due to Grasberg’s location in Indonesia. They caution that while Freeport’s global asset base is strong, risks tied to major projects remain elevated in the short term.
