President Donald Trump’s rapid-fire efforts to reshape the federal government, from its size to immigration, regulation and foreign policy, has contributed to increased volatility and some deep drops in the stock markets’ values.
But others are sticking with year-end predictions, many of which included caution of turbulence.
Carol Schleif, Minneapolis-based chief market strategist of BMO Private Wealth, summed up her view of the rest of the year in a note to her clients: “nauseously optimistic.”
Schleif was one of a half-dozen top investment professionals who gathered in December for the Star Tribune’s Investors Roundtable. At the time, she predicted the S&P 500 index would end the year at 6,900, up from 5,920 at the end of 2024.
Carol Schleif of BMO says she is not ready to change her prediction but, if the Trump administration continues the pace of disruption of the past few months, it will be hard to reach. (Leila Navidi)
“It’s a little early for me to want to change, but it could be tough getting there if policy doesn’t settle soon,” Schleif said.
Other Investors Roundtable participants also are, at least for now, sticking with their S&P forecasts, which ranged from 6,460 to 7,300. At the time of the meeting, that equated to 6.2% to 20% growth.
For Schleif, the largest surprise of the Trump administration was the fast and far-reaching cuts made by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE.
