The Australian share market is likely to fall in morning trade after a brutal session on Wall Street, weighed down by massive losses in the share price of tech and AI companies like Nvidia and Microsoft.
Meanwhile, cryptocurrency bitcoin has plunged to a 16-month low, below $US73,000.
See how the trading day unfolds on our blog.
Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice.
Key Events
Market snapshot
- ASX 200: flat at 8,853 points
- Australian dollar: +1% at 70.16 US cents
- Wall Street: Dow Jones (-0.3%), S&P 500 (-0.8%), Nasdaq (-1.4%)
- Europe: FTSE (-0.3%), DAX (-0.1%), Stoxx 600 (+0.1%)
- Spot gold: +6% to $US4,943/ounce
- Spot silver: +5.6% to $US84.04/ounce
- Oil (Brent crude): +2.3% to $US67.82/barrel
- Iron ore: +1.1% to $US102.85 a tonne
- Bitcoin: -0.7% to $US75,622
Prices current around 10:20am AEDT
Key Event
ASX slips … but it’s not so bad
The Australian share market has started its day with a slight fall — which is quite impressive considering the tech sell-off on Wall Street overnight.
The ASX 200 was down 0.1% to 8,851 points, by 10:15am AEDT.
The broader All Ords index was down by a similar percentage to 9,141 points.
I’ll have more updates for you shortly.
CBA and UBS now calling May rate hike
We’ve had a few big names change their rate-hike predictions, after the RBA’s widely predicted decision yesterday to increase the cash rate to 3.85%.
CBA’s economists now think there is another to come in May. Until yesterday, NAB was the only one of the Big Four banks predicting this outcome. Here’s CBA’s note:
On the balance of probabilities,we now expect the RBA to follow up with a rate hike in May, taking the cash rate to 4.10%
CBA thinks this will happen because the RBA’s inflation forecasts “have been revised higher” and “particularly in the near term. RBA modelling shows inflation not returning to band until 2027 and presumes two hikes.
More from CBA:
There is unlikely to be enough hard evidence by May to prove that the initial rate hike is bringing down inflationand demand. The labour market is in better shape than expected and the resolve of the RBA is also stronger than we had anticipated.
UBS has also brought forward its next rate hike call to May. Its economists were previously tipping August. Its economists made this assessment of the board’s unanimous decision and public comments.
The RBA’s post meeting Statement continues to become shorter, and has removed any ‘forward guidance’. The RBA added the “Board judged that inflation is likely to remain above target for some time and it was appropriate to increase the cash rate target”.
Arguably this comment is hawkish, because it is likely to remain the case, at future RBA meetings, that inflation will be expected to remain above target. Hence, if this is the ‘condition/trigger’ to hike, then it makes each RBA meeting live to the prospect of a rate hike.
How has this rate hike impacted you? Tell us in the comments or send our journalist an email on terzon.emilia@abc.net.au
Key Event
Tuesday market recap: Alan Kohler’s finance report
If you want a quick recap of what happened on the ASX — before today’s trading session really kicks off — I can certainly recommend Alan Kohler’s finance report.
Here’s his take on yesterday’s Reserve Bank interest rate decision and how it affected markets:
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Key Event
Borrowers brace for higher home loan repayments after RBA lifts rates
It only took five months for the Reserve Bank to do a sharp U-turn on its interest rate policy.
It was only in August that the RBA cut interest rates as it was happy with its progress in bringing inflation down.
The picture looked very different its meeting on February 2-3.
Now the RBA reckons inflation won’t fall back within its 2-3% inflation target until the middle of next year!
As for what it means for mortgage repayments, I interviewed Canstar’s data insights director Sally Tindall.
“The average variable owner-occupier will be on a rate of around 5.77%,” she said.
“But you want to be below average when it comes to your mortgage rate.
“In fact, you want to be as low as possible. A competitive rate is likely to be around 5.5%.”
If you want a short, fun-to-watch summary of what’s going on with rates, you can watch my story here:
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Unions want new heat rules to safeguard workers
Unions are calling for set national rules about working in the heat, warning that extreme temperatures are killing workers.
Today is Extreme Heat Awareness Day and the ACTU has joined the Australian Medical Association (AMA), Australian Red Cross, the Australian Local Government Association (ALGA), the Australian Nursing and Midwifery Federation (ANMF) and Sweltering Cities to call for coordinated national action to protect workers and communities from escalating heat hazards driven by climate change.
The ACTU wants national rules that require employers to stop work or modify duties when temperatures reach dangerous levels.
It says countries such as Japan already have mandatory occupational health and safety heat requirements, but there are currently no national heat standards here (there are state and territory workplace health and safety laws that don’t clearly set out how to manage the issue).
It might not be a blanket “stop work at temperature X” but a mix of rules that requires employers to provide rest breaks, scheduling work at certain times and then “work stoppages at defined temperatures”.
ACTU President, Michele O’Neil said, in a statement:
“No worker should be told to push through the brutal heat and risk their own life. When it’s dangerously hot, your boss should either change your work or stop your work.
“A rest break or work stoppage in extreme heat can be the difference between a worker going home safe or not going home at all.
“We regulate asbestos and silica because they kill people and devastate families. It’s time we treat climate hazards like extreme heat in the same way. There is no excuse for Australia to leave workers exposed without clear, enforceable rules, especially when the government’s own reports project heat-related deaths to more than quadruple in our major cities.
“The science tells us that heatwaves are getting worse, but our regulations haven’t caught up. If countries like Japan can introduce national heat standards, surely Australia can too.
“If you get sick from working in extreme heat, it should be treated like any other workplace injury — and that means workers’ compensation coverage, so you can focus on getting better, instead of worrying about paying the bills.”
Key Event
Oil prices spike as US-Iranian tensions flare up (again)
The price of crude oil has been incredibly volatile lately, and this week was no exception.
Prices fell more than 4% yesterday after US President Donald Trump claimed Iran was “seriously talking” with Washington about scaling down its nuclear ambitions.
Iran was the third-largest crude producer in the OPEC cartel last year, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration.
But overnight, Brent crude futures jumped 2.6% to $68.03 a barrel as the “risk premium” returned.
That was after the US military shot down an Iranian drone that had “aggressively” approached the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea.
On top of that, in the Strait of Hormuz (between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman), a group of Iranian gunboats reportedly approached a US-flagged tanker north of Oman.
– with Reuters
Key Event
Gold and silver rebound from massive sell-off
Lately, there’s been a lot of talk about gold and silver being in a bubble, which explains the huge sell-off we saw earlier this week.
Over the weekend, the price of spot gold plunged 9% (its worst day since the early 1980s), while silver crashed 35% at one point (its largest single-day drop on record).
Here’s the financial damage in dollar terms, between January 29 and February 2, as people cashed out in droves:
- Gold fell from its record high ($US5,562 an ounce) to a low of $US4,547.
- Silver dropped from its highest level ever (around $US118 an ounce) to as low as $US76.33.
But today is a different story!
This morning, spot gold has jumped 5.9% to $US4,939 an ounce (still down significantly from its record).
Silver has rebounded 7.2% to around $US85 an ounce.
There’s always someone ready to “buy the dip” as they spot a “buying opportunity” (until there isn’t one, and it potentially leads to a prolonged bear market)…
Key Event
Australian dollar jumps above 70.2 US cents on prospect of more RBA rate hikes
Despite the steep falls on Wall Street and cryptocurrency markets overnight, there are some assets which are doing incredibly well!
For instance, the Australian dollar has jumped 1.1% to 70.25 US cents.
The local currency received a major boost from yesterday’s decision by the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates.
Markets are expecting the RBA to hike again at least once (maybe even twice) by the end of this year. That’s especially given inflation has gotten out of control again — and isn’t expected to fall within the bank’s 2-3% target range until June 2027!
Over the past year, the AUD was also propped up by a weaker US dollar.
The greenback fell to a four-year low earlier this year, mainly due to:
- Donald Trump’s chaotic trade policies (and frequently changing his mind on policy),
- President Trump’s threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve (which appear to have subsided with his appointment of “hawkis” Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair), and
- America’s ballooning government debt (exacerbated by the Republicans passing the “One Big Beautiful Bill”, which legislated further tax cuts for the wealthy, among other measures.
Key Event
Nvidia and AI sell-off leads to heavy losses for Wall Street
Wall Street has now finished trading, and it managed to recover substantially from the worst of its losses.
But it still didn’t perform very well, as you can see from these closing figures:
- Dow Jones: -0.3% to 49,241 points
- S&P 500: -0.8% to 6,918 points
- Nasdaq Composite: -1.4% to 23,255 points
The biggest drags on the US share market were tech and AI heavyweights like Nvidia (-2.8%), Alphabet (-1.2%), Microsoft (-2.9%), Amazon (-1.8%), Meta (-2.1%) and Broadcom (-3.3%).
It also looks like the Australian share market won’t perform as badly as expected, when it opens for trading in a few hours.
ASX futures are now down by 0.2%, which suggests the local bourse will only fall slightly this morning.
Key Event
Battery demand ‘straps on a rocket’ as rooftop solar passes its peak
Australian households installed as many batteries in the final six months of 2025 as they did in the entire preceding five years, according to figures showing the boom in demand for storage devices.
Amid generous federal government subsidies that slash the up-front cost of batteries, a report from the Clean Energy Council found customers were taking up the offers at a breakneck pace.
More than 183,000 units were sold in the six months to December 31, the Clean Energy Council found, a “fourfold” increase on the same time in 2024.
It was also equivalent to the combined battery sales for 2020 and 2024.
For more, here’s the story by Daniel Mercer and Isabel Moussalli:
Key Event
Elon Musk ordered to face questions as French police raid X offices in Paris
French police have raided the offices of Elon Musk’s social media network X as prosecutors ordered the tech billionaire to answer questions in April related to a widening investigation into the platform.
The raid is linked to a year-long investigation into suspected abuse of algorithms and fraudulent data extraction by X or its executives.
However, in a statement, the Paris prosecutor’s office said it was widening that investigation following complaints over the functioning of X’s artificial intelligence chatbot Grok.
The probe will now also investigate alleged complicity in the detention and diffusion of images of children of a pornographic nature and the violation of a person’s image rights with sexually explicit deepfakes, among other potential crimes.
You can read more about it here:
Key Event
ASX to fall after Wall Street and bitcoin sell-off
Good morning and welcome to the ABC’s finance blog! I’ll be your guide for the next few hours, in what looks to be a chaotic day for markets.
The Australian share market is likely to start its day with sizeable losses, given ASX futures are down 0.7%.
It comes after a frenzied sell-off on Wall Street, driven by steep falls in the price of artificial intelligence (AI), tech and software companies.
Investors are essentially selling down their holdings of AI-related stocks like Nvidia (-4.3%), Microsoft (-3%), Meta (-2.8%) and Amazon (-2.5%), which are arguably overvalued.
It appears many have chosen to pile into stocks that are associated with an economic recovery — for instance, Walmart (+2.6%), Caterpillar (+1.2%) and Johnson & Johnson (+1.5%). So there’s definitely a rotation going on.
This led to the S&P 500 dropping 1.1% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell almost 2%, by 3:30pm (local time).
Crypto sell-off
There were also signs of a meltdown in ‘cryptoland’ with the price of bitcoin falling to a 16-month low — or the weakest it has been since November 2024, to be precise.
That means bitcoin has wiped out all its gains since pro-crypto Donald Trump won the US election (the second time).
It was down more than 6% at one stage, trading as low as $US72,885 at its lowest point overnight.
Since then, bitcoin has come off its lows to be down 3.2%, at $US75,930 — a far cry from its record high of around $US124,000 back in October.
Basically, the common theme is that risky assets like cryptocurrencies, AI and tech stocks have risen so much in recent years that people have decided now is a good time to cash out.
Given the mounting geopolitical concerns (ie related to Donald Trump’s erratic policy shifts and trade wars), and the delayed release of crucial US economic data due to the partial government shutdown, no wonder the mood has turned negative or “risk-off”.
Anyway, I’ll have more updates for you shortly. Go enjoy your coffee, tea (or whatever you drink) before it gets cold!
Market snapshot
- ASX futures: -0.7% to 8,753 points
- ASX 200 (Tuesday close): +0.9% to 8,857 points
- Australian dollar: +0.9% at 70.06 US cents
- Wall Street: Dow Jones (-0.7%), S&P 500 (-1.2%), Nasdaq (-2%)
- Europe: FTSE (-0.3%), DAX (-0.1%), Stoxx 600 (+0.1%)
- Spot gold: +5.4% to $US4,917/ounce
- Spot silver: +5.6% to $US83.87/ounce
- Oil (Brent crude): +1.9% to $US67.53/barrel
- Iron ore: +0.9% to $US102.70 a tonne
- Bitcoin: -4..5% to $US74,976
Prices current around 7:15am AEDT
![i’m-nervous,-too!-[part-2]](https://10xwealthreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/177042-im-nervous-too-part-2-1568x784.jpg)
