Australian shares are trading fairly flat on Monday, while oil prices rebound following the US strike on Venezuela that sparked concerns about oversupply.
We’ll bring you the latest on what’s happening on the markets throughout the day in our live blog.
Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice.
Key Events
Market snapshot
- ASX 200: +0.1% to 8,736 points
- Australian dollar: -0.1% to 66.88 US cents
- S&P 500 (Friday): +0.2% to 6,858 points
- Nasdaq (Friday): Flat at 23,235 points
- FTSE (Friday): +0.2% to 9,951 points
- EuroStoxx (Friday): +0.9% to 617 points
- Spot gold: +1.7% to $US4,403/ounce
- Brent crude: +0.5% to $US61.08/barrel
- Bitcoin: +2% to $US93,072
Prices current around 12:40pm AEDT
Live updates on the major ASX indices:
Key Event
What the ABC’s business experts are watching in 2026
What are you watching in 2026 when it comes to the economy or markets?
That’s the question we put to the ABC’s business journalists, presenters and commentators as we head into the new year.
From the Japanese bond market to intergenerational inequality and from unemployment to electric vehicles, here’s what they’re keeping an eye on in 2026.
Key Event
Mortgage market hits new highs: Canstar
The value of residential mortgages among the banks grew by 0.67% in November to the record high of $2.41 trillion, according to analysis of the latest APRA monthly banking statistics by Canstar.
CBA recorded the largest monthly increase in dollar terms, rising by $4.6 billion in just one month (0.76%).
Macquarie Bank continued to post impressive gains, with a monthly increase of $3.6 billion (+2.32%), contributing to an annual increase of almost 24%.
ANZ recorded its smallest monthly increase since April 2022, with $189 million added in November, or 0.06%.
The continued growth in home loans has been driven by the rise in property prices, Canstar said.
Key Event
Nikkei jumps as markets shrug off Venezuela tension
Japan’s Nikkei share average jumped nearly 3% on the first trading day of 2026, with chip-related stocks leading the charge, as investors brushed off the potential impact of US military action in Venezuela.
The Nikkei was up 2.78% at 51,737.80, by about 2:10pm AEDT, snapping a two-session losing streak at year-end.
The broader Topix climbed to a record high, rising 2% to 3,478.27.
Shares of chip-testing equipment maker Advantest jumped 6.37%, while the chip-making equipment maker Tokyo Electron climbed 6%. Chip-related sectors tracked a 4% gain in the US semiconductor index on Wall Street’s opening session of the year on Friday.
“The market turned risk-on as if uncertainties over the impact of the US action on Venezuela had been removed,” said Kazuaki Shimada, chief strategist at IwaiCosmo Securities.
The surge in Japanese equities followed a dramatic weekend of events, which saw the US capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
US President Donald Trump said on Saturday he was putting Venezuela under temporary American control.
“Monday’s session mirrored what happened to the Nikkei last year, where chip-related shares led the market. This may become the trend of this year as well,” Shimada said.
Technology investor SoftBank Group rose 4% and fibre optic cable maker Fujikura climbed 5.56%.
Defence-related shares surged, with IHI and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries climbed 9.24% and 7.39%, respectively, to become the top percentage gainers in the Nikkei.
“The US capture of the Venezuelan president raised fears for geopolitical risks, but that became a tailwind for defence stocks,” Shimada said.
Key Event
Aussie dollar is at a critical crossroads. Which way will it go?
The Australian dollar has been progressively losing value against the US dollar since July 2011.
The value of the local currency now appears at a crossroads.
How it goes from here will depend on the direction of interest rates, commodities prices and geopolitical tensions.
For more, read this article from business correspondent David Taylor.
Key Event
Oil production outlook in Venezuela
Venezuela’s oil production outlook this year will depend on how US sanctions policy evolves, Goldman Sachs analysts said, after US President Donald Trump deposed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
The US snatched Maduro from Caracas at the weekend and Trump said Washington would take control of the oil-producing nation.
“We see ambiguous but modest risks to oil prices in the short-run from Venezuela depending on how US sanctions policy evolves,” Goldman Sachs analysts led by Daan Struyven said in a January 4 note.
Goldman’s 2026 oil price forecasts remained unchanged with Brent‘s average at $US56 and West Texas Intermediate at $US52 a barrel while Venezuela’s 2026 oil production is forecast to stay flat at 900,000 barrels per day.
However, Venezuela’s production may rise in the long run, which adds downside risks to the oil price forecast for 2027 and beyond, the analysts said.
Venezuela produced about 3 million bpd at its peak in the mid-2000s and holds about a fifth of global proven oil reserves.
“Any recovery in production would likely be gradual and require substantial investment,” the analysts said.
“We estimate $4/bbl of downside to 2030 oil prices in a scenario where Venezuela crude production rises to 2mb/d in 2030.”
Top and bottom movers in afternoon trade
Key Event
WiseTech shares down as ACCC weighs in on competition concerns
Shares in WiseTech Global are down 3.5% heading into the afternoon, after the regulator weighed in on competition concerns raised one of the firm’s acquisitions.
This isn’t entirely new news — on New Year’s Eve, WiseTech released a statement to the ASX saying it had “voluntarily agreed” to sell Expedient Software, a subsidiary of BluJay Solutions, which WiseTech had acquired as part of a bigger deal in August 2025.
Last week, Wisetech said Expedient “formed a small and immaterial component of the business operations of E2open Parent Holdings” and was not part of the “investment rationale” behind its acquisition, noting it employed fewer than than 30 staff and “generates annual revenue of less than 0.4% of WiseTech’s FY26 revenue guidance”.
Today, the ACCC spelled out its side of the negotiations, saying WiseTech completed the acquisition before the regulator had finished evaluating competition implications.
“While WiseTech informed the ACCC about the acquisition, WiseTech completed the acquisition before the ACCC conducted its review and could reach a decision, despite being aware of the significant concerns being raised,” ACCC chair Gina Cass-Gottlieb said.
The ACCC said the court-enforceable undertaking for WiseTech to sell Expedient “addresses the competition concerns identified by the ACCC in its investigation, by restoring Expedient as an independent competitor to WiseTech”.
“The ACCC received significant concerns from users of logistics software during the investigation and was concerned that the acquisition could lead to higher prices or lower quality services,” Ms Cass-Gottlieb said.
Last week, WiseTech chief executive Zubin Appoo said the firm maintained that its ownership of Expedient “does not lessen competition in the Australian market” but that the firm had agreed to sell it off and said there would be no material financial impact from the proposed divestment.
Key Event
ASX flat in afternoon trade
The Australian share market is trading fairly flat this afternoon as gains in energy and mining offset losses in tech and consumer discretionary.
The ASX 200 index was nearly unchanged at 8,728, by 12:30pm AEDT.
Miners climbed 1.5% on Monday, boosted by surging base metal prices. Nickel climbed to a 14-month peak on Friday as a delay in approval for Vale Indonesia’s annual production plan stoked expectations that the supply glut might be easing, while copper hit a record high.
Mining giants BHP and Rio Tinto gained 1.2% and 1.3%, respectively.
Energy stocks advanced 2.3%, with oil majors Santos and Woodside gaining 0.7% and 1.3%, respectively.
Rate-sensitive consumer discretionary stocks were among the weakest performers, shedding nearly 1%. Tech stocks fell 1.8% and real estate stocks slipped 0.6%. Financials inched down 0.1%.
Investors are now awaiting the monthly consumer price data for November on Wednesday, with forecasts showing a slight slowdown to 3.7% from 3.8% the month before.
with Reuters
Key Event
Trump says US is in charge of Venezuela: Bloomberg reports
Donald Trump says oil companies “badly” want to go into Venezuela and the US is in charge of the country, Bloomberg reports.
The US president has been speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One this morning (Australian time) after the US attacked Caracas and seized Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro overnight.
“We’re going to have to have big investments by the oil companies to bring back the infrastructure,” Mr Trump told reporters.
He said the US was dealing with Delcy Rodríguez, the country’s interim president.
“And don’t ask me who’s in charge, because I’ll give you an answer and it’ll be very controversial,” he said when asked who was in charge in Venezuela, Bloomberg reported.
“It means we’re in charge.”
The US attack and seizure of president Maduro has had little impact so far on oil markets that are already awash with supply.
Prices inched up slightly on Monday morning.
Key Event
Cattle heavyweight flags ‘material’ losses from Queensland floods
The country’s biggest listed cattle station operator, Australian Agricultural Company (AACo), says it will take a “material” hit to earnings from flooding in north-western Queensland.
In a statement to the stock exchange, AACo said three of its 27 properties — Carrum, Dalgonny and Canobie — have been hit by the monsoonal floods, which have cut roads in the area.
The three properties carry about 55,000 of the total 456,000 cattle owned by AACo, the company said.
“At this stage, as conditions are evolving and remain challenging, a credible assessment of the impact on livestock and infrastructure is currently unable to be undertaken — noting there is still the possibility of further west season impacts,” AACo told the ASX.
It said it does not insure its cattle or station infrastructure because the cost would be “prohibitive”.
“The overall impact of this flooding on the company’s financial earnings for the March 2026 financial year is still to be determined (and likely to be material),” it said.
AACo said it would provide further updates when possible.
Shares in AACo fell 1.7% to $1.43 per share.
Key Event
Oil prices rebound but largely muted
Oil prices have rebounded after falling as much as 0.5% in early trade.
By about 11.30am AEDT, Brent crude oil gained 0.3% to $US60.90 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude bounced 0.1% to $US57.38.
Key Event
This week: November CPI, US employment data
Hello Monday readers, Stephen Letts is away today, but I thought we’d keep his little ritual going by highlighting the key macro events to watch this week.
Locally, on Wednesday the ABS releases the November CPI figures and building approvals data. It will also release international trade in goods figures on Thursday.
Overseas, the US employment data due on Friday, January 9, could provide a jolt either way.
Concerns over weakness in the labour market prompted the US Fed to lower interest rates at each of its past three meetings of 2025, as the central bank juggles its goals of full employment and contained inflation.
Employment for December is expected to have increased by 55,000 jobs in the US, after unemployment there climbed to a more than four-year high of 4.6% in November.
Other data this week includes US manufacturing and services sector activity.
Market snapshot
- ASX 200: +0.1% to 8,736 points
- Australian dollar: -0.2% to 66.82 US cents
- S&P 500 (Friday): +0.2% to 6,858 points
- Nasdaq (Friday): Flat at 23,235 points
- FTSE (Friday): +0.2% to 9,951 points
- EuroStoxx (Friday): +0.9% to 617 points
- Spot gold: +0.8% to $US4,364/ounce
- Brent crude: -0.4% to $US60.53/barrel
- Bitcoin: Flat at $US91,270
Prices current around 10:45am AEDT
Live updates on the major ASX indices:
Top and bottom movers at open
Key Event
Oil falls in early Asian trade
Brent crude oil prices have slipped 0.3% to $US60.56 a barrel in early Asian trade on Monday, following a 0.2% fall over the weekend.
Investors continue to weigh oversupply worries against geopolitical risks after US President Donald Trump said Washington would take control of Venezuela, an oil-producing nation and a member of OPEC.
OPEC+ said on Sunday that it decided to keep oil output unchanged.
Analysts said there was plentiful oil supply in global markets, meaning any further disruption to Venezuela’s exports would have little immediate impact on prices.
with Reuters
Key Event
ASX opens up
The benchmark Australian market index, the ASX 200, has opened slightly higher this morning.
At 10:05am AEDT, the index was up 0.16%.
Uranium stocks Paladin Energy and Deep Yellow showed the biggest gains in early trade, with Paladin up 9.77% and Deep Yellow up 7.46%.
But there was little movement among blue chips, with Australia’s banks barely moving. Of the big four, ANZ rose 0.27% while the biggest bank in the country, the Commonwealth Bank, fell 0.01%.
Insurance company AUB Group was the bourse’s biggest loser, falling 2.09%.
Key Event
Oil prices in downtrend as OPEC+ keeps output steady
Oil prices have eased after logging their biggest annual loss since 2020, as investors weigh oversupply worries against geopolitical risks.
US crude dipped 0.17% to settle at $57.32 per barrel, while Brent settled at $60.75 per barrel, down 0.16%.
On Sunday, OPEC+ held a quick meeting to keep oil output unchanged after oil prices fell more than 18% in 2025.
The group produces about half the world’s oil.
On Saturday, the US captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and US President Donald Trump said Washington would take control of the country until a transition to a new administration becomes possible, without saying how this would be achieved.
“Judging by OPEC’s actions over the weekend, it’s in no rush to recalibrate output in response to the US attacks on Venezuela,” senior financial market analyst Kyle Rodda from capital.com said in a note.
“It chose to keep production unchanged, with the cartel emphasising stability in the crude markets.
“Despite a downside to prices and a building supply glut in global markets, OPEC isn’t rushing to put a strong floor under prices, ostensibly adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach to market conditions.
“When it comes to the charts, crude is clearly in a downtrend, with the 50 day moving average a noteworthy level of technical resistance and roughly $US55 a major level of support.”
Key Event
Dow, S&P 500 close higher on first day of 2026
The Dow and S&P 500 indexes ended higher on Friday, starting 2026 by snapping a four-day losing streak, helped by gains in chip makers Nvidia, Intel and Boeing.
In 2025, the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all notched double-digit gains, their third straight year in the green, a run last seen during 2019-2021.
Chip stocks provided a boost on Friday, with the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index up 4%. Industrials and utilities also gained. Caterpillar and Boeing rose 4.5% and 4.9%, boosting the Dow.
While chip stocks rallied, several market heavyweights such as Apple and Microsoft fell to keep gains in check on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were also pressured by losses in consumer discretionary stocks including Amazon, and Tesla also slid 2.6% after annual sales fell for a second year.
“It looks like the momentum in last year’s top-performing technology stocks hasn’t faded, because neither has demand for artificial intelligence, as the AI infrastructure build-out accelerates,” Jessica Amir, market strategist from Moomoo Australia, said in a note.
The Dow Jones index rose 0.7% to 48,382, the S&P 500 gained 0.2% to 6,858 and the Nasdaq Composite ended flat at 23,235.
with Reuters
Market snapshot
- ASX 200 futures: +0.1% to 8,718 points
- Australian dollar: -0.1% to 66.85 US cents
- S&P 500 (Friday): +0.2% to 6,858 points
- Nasdaq (Friday): Flat at 23,235 points
- FTSE (Friday): +0.2% to 9,951 points
- EuroStoxx (Friday): +0.9% to 617 points
- Spot gold: +0.4% to $US4,329/ounce
- Brent crude: -0.2% to $US60.75/barrel
- Bitcoin: -0.1% to $US91,135
Prices current around 9:00am AEDT
Live updates on the major ASX indices:
![i’m-nervous,-too!-[part-2]](https://10xwealthreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/177042-im-nervous-too-part-2-1568x784.jpg)
