Masco Corporation (MAS) Stock Forecasts

Summary

We are raising our third-quarter 2024 forecast for GDP growth to 1.6% from 1.5% based on small adjustments to our model. We are reducing our estimate of 3Q core PCE inflation from 2.5% to 2.2%. We see a U.S. economy that is growing, but may be losing momentum based on our analysis of more than 50 indicators. To be sure, 3% GDP growth in 2Q provides reassurance that we have not entered a recession. We expect growth to slow in the in the second half as a result of restrictive monetary policy. We expect the Fed to start easing this month, which, combined with a drop in the 10-year Treasury rate, should lead to stronger growth by 3Q25. We are maintaining our 4Q24 GDP growth estimate at 1.7% and keeping our full-year 2024 estimate at 1.9%. We expect 2% growth in 2025, with quarterly estimates of 1.7%, 1.6%, 2.4%, and 2.4%. Four indicators driven by broad and timely data support our assessment that the economy is not in a recession but may be losing steam. On September 9, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDP Nowcast was estimating 3Q growth of 2.5%. On September 6, the New York Fed’s Staff Nowcast for 3Q was for 2.6% growth, with a 68% probability range of 0.94% to 4.2% growth. The Weekly Economic Index tracked by the Dallas Fed is based on 10 daily and weekly indicators of consumer behavior, the labor market, and production. If, for example, an index value of 2% persisted for an entire q