Mondelez International, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:MDLZ) Stock Has Shown A Decent Performance: Have Financials A Role To Play?

Most readers would already know that Mondelez International’s (NASDAQ:MDLZ) stock increased by 9.6% over the past three months. Given that stock prices are usually aligned with a company’s financial performance in the long-term, we decided to investigate if the company’s decent financials had a hand to play in the recent price move. Specifically, we decided to study Mondelez International’s ROE in this article.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company’s shareholders.

View our latest analysis for Mondelez International

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders’ Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Mondelez International is:

14% = US$4.0b ÷ US$28b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The ‘return’ refers to a company’s earnings over the last year. So, this means that for every $1 of its shareholder’s investments, the company generates a profit of $0.14.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company’s future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or “retains” for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Mondelez International’s Earnings Growth And 14% ROE

To start with, Mondelez International’s ROE looks acceptable. Further, the company’s ROE is similar to the industry average of 14%. Despite the modest returns, Mondelez International’s five year net income growth was quite low, averaging at only 2.7%. So, there could be some other factors at play that could be impacting the company’s growth. For instance, the company pays out a huge portion of its earnings as dividends, or is faced with competitive pressures.

We then compared Mondelez International’s net income growth with the industry and found that the company’s growth figure is lower than the average industry growth rate of 9.7% in the same 5-year period, which is a bit concerning.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. If you’re wondering about Mondelez International’s’s valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Mondelez International Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

With a high three-year median payout ratio of 50% (or a retention ratio of 50%), most of Mondelez International’s profits are being paid to shareholders. This definitely contributes to the low earnings growth seen by the company.

Additionally, Mondelez International has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company’s management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Upon studying the latest analysts’ consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 56% of its profits over the next three years. Still, forecasts suggest that Mondelez International’s future ROE will rise to 18% even though the the company’s payout ratio is not expected to change by much.

Summary

On the whole, we do feel that Mondelez International has some positive attributes. Yet, the low earnings growth is a bit concerning, especially given that the company has a high rate of return. Investors could have benefitted from the high ROE, had the company been reinvesting more of its earnings. As discussed earlier, the company is retaining a small portion of its profits. Having said that, looking at the current analyst estimates, we found that the company’s earnings are expected to gain momentum. To know more about the company’s future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.