Overview
The New England Revolution entered the final quarter of the 2024 season with the opportunity to salvage a difficult season and qualify for the playoffs for a second consecutive season and third time in the last four. Instead, the Revs delivered their second-worst quarterly results in the last two years gaining an average of just .55 points per game, well below the 1.25 points per game rate needed to reach the playoffs in a typical MLS season.
The abysmal points total in the fourth quarter nearly matched the .5 points per game rate in the disastrous 2024 first quarter. This final period of the season did not have the same mitigating circumstances as the opening quarter of the season and must be looked at as a complete failure. The team could not even keep pace with its meager 1.30 points per game rate in the middle half of the season.
The playoff points total to reach ninth position in the MLS Eastern Conference only ended up being 40 points, only 1.17 points per game would have been needed over a full season to reach that total. Missing the playoffs in this manner should be cause for serious concern in the Revs front office.
And once again, early MLS playoff results have shown just sneaking in the door can lead to playoff glory. The ninth-ranked Atlanta United, winners of just 10 regular season games, knocked out top seed Inter Miami in a three-game series. The two teams behind Miami, Cincinnati, and Columbus also found themselves in playoff hell and bounced early.
Analyst note: Both Q1 and Q2 were eight matches, Q3 and Q4 are nine match quarters.
Performance
The Revs scored nine goals in the fourth quarter, a decrease in goals per game and goals overall from Q3’s 13 goals and 1.44 goals per game. The decrease in scoring came through a combination of increased shots per game but a decline in shots on target from the previous quarter. A lack of chance conversion from the team’s main striker was the main culprit in the underperformance.
Defensively, the team saw an uptick of goals allowed per game to 2.77, 25 in total across nine games. This was in comparison to 1.92 goals allowed, 48 in total, in the season’s first 25 games. This increase in goals allowed was matched by the highest xG allowed per game quarterly total of 17.86 in the fourth quarter, a noticeable increase over Q3’s season-best 14.5 xG allowed across a similar number of games.
With the 2024 season complete, the Revs finished with minimal increases in corners and touches in the opponent’s penalty area per game when compared to 2023. More concerning and significant were the Revs declines in shots, shots on target, expected goals, and xG from open play per game compared to 2023.
Thank you for reading The Blazing Musket. This post is public so feel free to share it.
Results
The fourth quarter saw the Revs win just once, at home to Nashville. They gained a further two points with draws at home against St. Louis and Montreal, for a total of five points. The Revs lost at home to DC United while losing on the road to Orlando, Charlotte, Houston, Columbus and Miami.
The Revs were last in MLS in points per game during the period of their nine games in the fourth quarter. It should be noted that not all teams played an equal number of games. The top 18 teams in the period from September 7 to October 19 are highlighted below, as are the Revs, 18 representing the number of MLS teams making the playoffs.
Quarter Highlights
-
The team won at home with a shutout against Nashville
-
Points-gaining results were achieved in three of the first five games of the quarter to keep playoff qualification possible
-
The Revs were 2-0 up against Inter Miami for six minutes in the first half of the season’s final game
Tailwinds
-
The 2024 MLS season for the Revs, one of the worst in its history, is over
-
New signings, Luca Langoni and Alhassan Yusuf will have a full preseason with the team in preparation for 2025
-
The team has the ability to open up several roster spots and cap space and gains the opportunity to buyout a contracted player before next season begins
-
Due to their low finish, the Revs should have a high draft pick in December’s MLS SuperDraft
Headwinds
-
Tomas Chancalay is expected to be injured to begin next season
-
Talented youngster, Noel Buck is not expected to return in 2025 and is currently on loan in England
-
Continued concern about the team’s rate of players missing games due to injury
-
Caleb Porter is expected to return as head coach for the 2025 season
Analysts Projections/Points per Game
It was expected the Revolution would need to reach at least 40 points on the season to reach the playoffs and possibly as many as 43 points to finish in ninth position. It turned out only 40 points would have been needed.
Contributing analysts projected 1.36 points per game in the 4th quarter. That rate would have left the Revs short of making the playoffs. They had a massive miss to the downside of the analysts’ projection, achieving just .55 points per game. They missed the playoffs by nine points and avoided a last-place finish in the Eastern Conference by a single point.
Contributing analysts included; Greg Johnstone, Andy Judd, Sam Minton, Thomas Pinzone
Rating
The New England Revolution have been downgraded to a strong sell after a fourth quarter that failed to deliver consistent results, strong performances, entertainment or optimism for 2025. It is the reporting analyst’s belief that Caleb Porter’s system of play is outdated for the modern MLS game and his talent identification is lacking.
It is recommended that the team should seek a replacement for Porter during the off-season but acknowledging the unlikelihood of that happening, he should be given no more than Q1 of 2025 to turn results and performances around.
