With its stock down 17% over the past three months, it is easy to disregard Nutrien (TSE:NTR). But if you pay close attention, you might find that its key financial indicators look quite decent, which could mean that the stock could potentially rise in the long-term given how markets usually reward more resilient long-term fundamentals. In this article, we decided to focus on Nutrien’s ROE.
Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder’s equity.
Check out our latest analysis for Nutrien
How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?
The formula for ROE is:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders’ Equity
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Nutrien is:
3.2% = US$815m ÷ US$25b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).
The ‘return’ is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every CA$1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn CA$0.03 in profit.
Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?
So far, we’ve learned that ROE is a measure of a company’s profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or “retain”, we are then able to evaluate a company’s future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.
Nutrien’s Earnings Growth And 3.2% ROE
As you can see, Nutrien’s ROE looks pretty weak. Even compared to the average industry ROE of 8.2%, the company’s ROE is quite dismal. However, we we’re pleasantly surprised to see that Nutrien grew its net income at a significant rate of 26% in the last five years. We believe that there might be other aspects that are positively influencing the company’s earnings growth. For instance, the company has a low payout ratio or is being managed efficiently.
We then compared Nutrien’s net income growth with the industry and we’re pleased to see that the company’s growth figure is higher when compared with the industry which has a growth rate of 15% in the same 5-year period.
Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock’s future looks promising or ominous. Has the market priced in the future outlook for NTR? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.
Is Nutrien Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?
The three-year median payout ratio for Nutrien is 33%, which is moderately low. The company is retaining the remaining 67%. This suggests that its dividend is well covered, and given the high growth we discussed above, it looks like Nutrien is reinvesting its earnings efficiently.
Moreover, Nutrien is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of seven years of paying a dividend. Looking at the current analyst consensus data, we can see that the company’s future payout ratio is expected to rise to 61% over the next three years. Still, forecasts suggest that Nutrien’s future ROE will rise to 6.6% even though the the company’s payout ratio is expected to rise. We presume that there could some other characteristics of the business that could be driving the anticipated growth in the company’s ROE.
Conclusion
Overall, we feel that Nutrien certainly does have some positive factors to consider. With a high rate of reinvestment, albeit at a low ROE, the company has managed to see a considerable growth in its earnings. On studying current analyst estimates, we found that analysts expect the company to continue its recent growth streak. To know more about the company’s future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
