NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Stock Forecasts

Summary

Determining a realistic estimate for the size of the Artificial Intelligence industry is a challenge, as there is simply no measurable unit of AI output comparable to barrels of oil or tons of steel. As well, much of the AI development occurs within laboratories and at universities – and results are measured in tangible progress against AI objectives, not dollars or units of output. In the corporate world, nearly all pure-play AI companies service micro-niches, have little measurable revenue, and are deeply unprofitable. Argus believes that much of the revenue and most of the profitability from the AI industry is attributable to several giant U.S. and a few international companies. These primarily operate in growth sectors such as Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary. Key companies include Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Meta Platforms, IBM, Alphabet, Salesforce, Nvidia, and Qualcomm in the U.S. China has Baidu, Tencent, and Alibaba all developing AI solutions. There is also significant activity among companies pursuing advances in IoT, vehicle electrification, autonomous driving, automation, and connectivity for manufacturing, warehousing, construction, and other areas. Argus has derived a model of the size and scope of the global AI industry, based on our coverage of major publicly traded players and most of the mid-tier players, along with our industry knowledge of private players. We estimate the global industry annual revenue amounted to $90-$100 billion in 2021, and expect that to grow at a 40% CAGR through 2030, when it is expected to reach $1.8 trillion. Annual growth is expected to decelerate from the low- to mid-40% range in the immediate years, to the mid-30% range for years toward the end of the survey period.