Summary
On Monday, the S&P 500 (SPX) fell right to its lower channel off the lows in October 2022 and March 2023. Yes, that is the trendline we didn’t trust because it was busted twice in October 2023. We also got close (at 5,119) to a 78.6% retracement of the rally from April until July (at 5,107). The SPX has cycled into oversold territory at 30 on the 14-day relative strength index (RSI), but could become more oversold. The rising 200-day is at 5,012, while the April low is at 4,967. One of our favorite charts is the weekly SPX with the 200-week average and the weekly Bollinger Bands. While we still have some distance, the slightly rising lower band is down near 5,000. A touch/undercut and then a recapture of the lower band generally has indicated an excellent time to buy the index/market. A good confirmation would be a move back over the middle band. But note the failures in 2022’s bear market: two times the SPX failed at/near the middle band, while a third move surpassed the middle band but ended up failing The VIX exploded to 66% at the open on Monday, its highest level since the pandemic. The three-day rate-of-change (ROC) is 136%, the highest since early 2018. Since 1990, this is the third-highest three-day ROC. We
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