Topline
Tuesday kicks off a historically merry period for investors, a stretch known familiarly as the Santa Claus rally for the positive stock market returns typically enjoyed during the holiday season, potentially bringing further gains to a largely cheery 2024 for equities.
Santa visits the New York Stock Exchange.
Key Facts
The Santa Claus rally refers to the historic tendency for stocks to advance around the Christmas holiday, and the term typically refers to the final five trading days of a year and the first two sessions of the following year.
That makes Tuesday the official start of the Santa Claus rally period, which will conclude next Friday (Jan. 3).
Over the seven-session Santa Claus rally stretch, the S&P 500 index has gained an average of 1.3% dating back to 1950, far better than the index’s average seven-day return of 0.3%, according to LPL Financial’s chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist.
Beyond jolly attitudes among fund managers and other market participants, the phenomenon traces back to low trading volume and a lack of potentially harmful economic and earnings reports, though jolly attitudes among investors.
The Santa Claus rally got off to a good start, as the S&P rose 0.8% by midday Tuesday, crossing 6,000 for the first time since last Wednesday.
Is The Stock Market Open Today?
Yes. The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq will both operate on half-day schedules, closing at 1 p.m., while bond markets will shut down at 2 p.m., and major U.S. financial markets will stay closed until Thursday’s normal trading session.
Key Background
Before Santa came down the chimney on Wall Street on Tuesday, it was already a good year for equity investors. The S&P has advanced more than 25% in 2024, putting the index well on pace for its first back-to-back 20% annual gains since 1998, according to FactSet. Driving much of the gains were continued optimism about generative artificial intelligence and the first interest rate cuts since 2020.
What To Watch For
Wall Street strategists largely predict 2025 will be another year of strong returns for investors, with the likes of Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley each predicting another record run for the S&P.
Tangent
The S&P’s top percentage gainer Tuesday was none other than Palantir, the AI-heavy government contractor which is the index’s best-performing stock of 2024.
Further Reading
ForbesHere’s How Wall Street Expects S&P 500 To Perform In 2025By Derek Saul
