S&P 500 futures are little changed after Fed signals it’s unlikely to cut rates in March: Live updates

Main Street investor optimism jumped to 49.1% in the latest weekly survey by the American Association of Individual investors, up from 39.3% last week and the 13th week straight week it’s stood above the historical average of 37.5%.

Investors haven’t been this bullish in six weeks, since the week before Christmas.

Bearish opinion on the outlook for stock prices over the coming six months only dipped to 24.5% from 26.1% last week (still well below the historical average of 31.0%, also for a 13th week). Neutral sentiment — that stocks will be little changed in the next six months — narrowed to 26.4% from 34.6%.

Investors answered a special question this week that asked how they viewed the recent all-time high in the S&P 500. A plurality of 45.7% said it made them “somewhat optimistic” abouut the short-term outlook for stocks, while the new S&P 500 record made another 6.6% “greatly optimistic.” By contrast, only 25.9% felt “somewhat pessimistic” as a result, while 5.7% said it made them “greatly pessimistic.” Some 15.5% said the new highs had no impact on their thinking.

— Scott Schnipper

Goldman Sachs’ Scott Rubner thinks “The pain trade is now lower, not higher from here,” meaning sustaining the recent run to record highs could be tough.

“We have all-time high problems for the US equity market and the bar is simply too high in February,” he said, noting he recommends adding stock hedges for this month.

— Fred Imbert

A drop in Honeywell on the back of earnings capped gains for the Dow on Thursday.

Shares of the industrial stock fell 3% after the company missed expectations for revenue in the fourth quarter. That made it the worst performer in the Dow and only member stock down more than 1%.

As a whole, the blue-chip average gained 0.6%. That means it slightly underperformed the broad S&P 500 and technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite, with both adding around 0.7%.

Still, notable advances in several of the 30 stocks in the Dow helped the index. Merck led the average higher, adding more than 3% after posting strong earnings and guidance. Walgreens and Amgen were the next biggest gainers, rising more than 2% each.

— Alex Harring

Updated projections from the Atlanta branch of the Federal Reserve shows that the U.S. economy is gaining strength.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate jumped 4.2% growth for the first quarter in its weekly update. The same projection called for 3.0% growth last week.

According to the release, the increase was driven by improved projections for both personal consumption and private investment.

If the Atlanta Fed’s unofficial estimate proves true, it would show that the economy is accelerating from the 3.3% annualized growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2023.

— Jesse Pound

These are some of the stocks making notable moves on Thursday:

• C.H. Robinson — Shares slid bled 11.6% following a worse-than-expected earnings report from the logistics company.
• Peloton — Shares fell more than 23% on the back of the workout brand’s weak outlook.
• Honeywell International — The industrial stock slipped 3.1% after missing expectations on revenue.

Click here to read the full story.

— Alex Harring

Comments from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell following the central bank’s interest rate decision on Wednesday pushed a teetering market over the edge, according to Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

“There was just so much on this market that it felt like Powell was the last straw,” she said on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street,” citing a deterioration in the geopolitical landscape, a return of hard landing concerns and recent employment data.

Calvasina’s advised market participants to expect a pullback in the market, noting she’s been surprised one hasn’t come yet.

She also said “disappointing” earnings from big technology companies were unexpected, but it makes sense because the bar was set so high after recent market outperformance.

— Alex Harring

SPDR Regional Bank ETF past five days.

The U.S. manufacturing sector remained in contraction during January, while prices posted an unexpected jump.

The ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 49.1, an increase of 2 points from December and better than the Dow Jones estimate for 47.2. However, because the gauge is a diffusion index measuring the share of business reporting expansion, any reading below 50 represents contraction. The sector has been in contraction for 15 straight months.

On the inflation front, the prices index jumped 7 points to 52.9, indicating price pressures at a time when other readings have shown an easing.

In a separate data point, the Commerce Department reported that construction spending rose 0.9% in December, well ahead of the consensus forecast for a 0.5% gain.

—Jeff Cox

Shares of Ferrari rallied nearly 10% after the luxury car maker reported quarterly results that beat analyst expectations.

The company earned €1.62 per share, excluding certain items, on revenue of €1.52 billion. Analysts polled by StreetAccount expected a profit of €1.48 per share on revenue of €1.51 billion.

“2023 was a very successful year, during which we strengthened our brand through a number of achievements reflected in our unprecedented financial results,” CEO Benedetto Vigna said in a statement. “We now have a very important year ahead of us in the execution of our business plan, which continues on schedule along its carefully planned path.”

Ferrari was also in the news Thursday after multiple reports said Mercedes F1 driver Lewis Hamilton is poised to join the Scuderia in 2025. Hamilton is one of the most successful drivers in the sports history, with seven world titles — a record he shares with Ferrari legend Michael Schumacher — and 103 race wins, the most ever.

— Fred Imbert

Solar company Nextracker‘s stock surged 21% Thursday after raising guidance for the third time.

Nextracker is now guiding for revenue of up to $2.475 billion this year, compared to $2.4 billion previously. The company also raised its adjusted earnings forecast for the year to $2.75 per share at the top of the range, versus $2.15 previously.

Nextracker manufactures control systems that direct solar panels toward the sun throughout the day. The company joined the public markets in February 2023 in a successful IPO.

Nextracker reported revenue Wednesday of $710 million, a 38% increase over the same period last year.

“Solar is by far the largest new power source being installed in the U.S and globally,” Nextracker CEO Dan Shugar told CNBC’s Jon Fortt Wednesday. “Within 10 years, solar will be the number one energy source within the United States.”

— Spencer Kimball

Stocks opened higher on Thursday as Wall Street looked to rebound from a selloff a day earlier spurred by the latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

The S&P 500 ticked up 0.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 95 points, or 0.2%.

— Brian Evans

Economic reports Thursday brought good news for productivity and inflation, though initial jobless claims ticked higher than anticipated.

Productivity, a measure of worker output, increased 3.2% in the fourth quarter, better than the 2.5% estimate from Dow Jones, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. At the same time, unit labor costs, or the difference between hourly pay and productivity, rose just 0.5%, below the 1.1% estimate.

However, a separate Labor Department report showed that first-time filings for unemployment benefits totaled 224,000, up 9,000 from the previous week and ahead of the 214,000 estimate. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, totaled just shy of 1.9 million, up 70,000 and higher than the 1.84 million estimate from FactSet.

—Jeff Cox

Check out the companies making headlines before the bell:

• Qualcomm —The semiconductor stock shed 2% following a downgrade from Citi to neutral from buy. While Qualcomm beat both earnings and revenue estimates for the fourth quarter, Citi analyst Christopher Danely was disappointed by the company’s lower-than-expected guidance for the current quarter.
• General Motors — Shares added about 1% after Morgan Stanley maintained its overweight rating and raised its price target on the stock, noting General Motors’ focus shift back to internal combustion engine vehicles as fully electric models fail to gain enough popularity among consumers. The stock is trading at a low multiple compared to spending, the firm highlighted as a key catalyst for investors.
• Nextracker — Shares of the solar technology company jumped 17% on bullish analyst notes following its strong quarterly results and guidance increase. Barclays maintained its overweight rating on the stock, saying the company’s positioning with its U.S. suppliers will lead to market share gains and/or “superior gross margins compared to peers.” Bank of America also pointed to Nexttracker’s margin expansion strength, maintaining a buy on the stock.

For the full list, read here.

— Pia Singh

Shares of industrial giant Honeywell fell more than 2% after the company posted mixed results for the fourth quarter.

The company earned $2.60 per share, excluding certain items, on revenue of $9.44 billion. Analysts polled by LSEG expected a profit of $2.59 per share on revenue of $9.7 billion.

HON falls

Aozora Bank profit warning

Shares in Aozora Bank tumbled to their lowest level in eight months after the Japanese bank warned of a fiscal-year net loss due to its exposure to U.S. commercial real estate loans.

“Due to higher U.S. interest rates and a shift to remote work accelerated by COVID-19, the U.S. office market continues to face adverse conditions combined with extremely low liquidity,” the bank said in a profit warning on Thursday.

“While price discovery is anticipated to eventually improve with a gradual increase in office transactions on the back of an expected return-to-office movement as well as a pause in the rise in U.S. interest rates, our view is that it may take another year or two for the market to stabilize,” the bank added.

Aozora shares sank by as much as 21.5% to 2,557 yen (about $17.41), set for its lowest closing level since May 31.

Please read the full story here.

— Clement Tan

Patym shares tumbled 20% to its lowest in nearly seven weeks after the Indian central bank ordered the digital payment provider to stop taking new deposits for its popular wallet accounts from March.

The tumble in the shares of Patym, an associate of One 97 Communications, was the maximum allowed in a day on the Mumbai stock exchange.

One 97 Communications said in a statement it’s “taking immediate steps to comply with RBI directions, including working with the regulator to address their concerns as quickly as possible.”

The company added it “works with various banks (not just Paytm Payments Bank), on various payments products” and “will [now] accelerate the plans and completely move to other bank partners.”

— Clement Tan

The Caixin China manufacturing PMI came in at 50.8 in January, according to a release on Thursday, after also coming in at 50.8 in December. This was better than the median expectation for 50.6 among economists that Reuters polled. The 50-point mark separates expansion from contraction.

This was a third-straight monthly expansion in China’s factory activity, extending a divergence with official data that points to the patchy growth in the world’s second-largest economy and underscores the need for policy support.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics released data Wednesday that showed the country’s official manufacturing PMI coming in at 49.2 in January, a fourth consecutive monthly contraction — compared with 49 in December.

Please read the full story for more.

— Clement Tan

Data showed South Korea’s exports rose by the most in 21 months.

South Korean exports rose 18% year-over-year to $54.69 billion last month, much higher than a 5% in December. The reading also topped a Reuters poll expectation of a 17.8% rise.

January exports were the biggest percentage rise since May 2022.

Following a year of downturn, South Korea’s exports have been growing since October.

Data also showed imports falling 7.8% in January, after a 10.8% drop in December. A Reuters poll of economists expected a 7.6% fall. It was the slowest pace since March 2023.

— Shreyashi Sanyal

Check out the companies making headlines in after-hours trading.

• Qualcomm — Qualcomm shares fell 2% even after the chipmaker posted fiscal first-quarter results that beat expectations. Adjusted earnings per share of $2.75 were better than the $2.37 per share consensus estimate by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv. Adjusted revenue came in at $9.92 billion, topping the $9.52 billion expected by analysts.
• Align Technology — Shares popped 10% after Align Technology reported fourth-quarter results that surpassed estimates on the top and bottom lines. The orthodontics company reported adjusted earnings of $2.42 per share on revenue of $957 million. Analysts polled by LSEG were anticipating earnings of $2.18 per share on revenue of $934 million. Align also issued a rosy forecast for first-quarter revenue.
• Wolfspeed — Wolfspeed shares slid almost 2% after the semiconductor maker issued weak revenue guidance for the fiscal third quarter. Wolfspeed is calling for revenue of $185 million to $215 million, while analysts polled by FactSet sought revenue of $222.6 million. The company posted a narrower-than-expected loss and beat on revenue for the most recent quarter.

Read the full list here.

— Sarah Min

Jobless claims is expected to have totaled 214,000 for the week ending Jan. 27, according to economists polled by Dow Jones. That’s in line with the prior week when jobless claims also amounted to 214,000.

The data is due out 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday.

— Sarah Min

Interest rate cut expectations were pushed out Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it’s unlikely the central bank will lower rates in March.

Currently, markets are still pricing in a 36% chance the central bank will cut by a quarter percentage point in March, down from a 40.4% chance in the previous day, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Meanwhile, the chances of a quarter percentage point rate cut in May rose to a 58% probability, up from 54% on Tuesday.

— Sarah Min

S&P 500 futures opened little changed Wednesday night.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were flat. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.05% and 0.15%, respectively.

— Sarah Min