Traders prepare as sales of MDA Space Ltd begin at the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on March 12, 2026 in New York City.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Stock futures were slightly higher on Thursday night as investors await key U.S. inflation data. The report comes as surging oil prices in the wake of the Iran war continues to weigh on stocks.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 73 points, or nearly 0.2%. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.05%.
In Thursday’s regular session, the three major averages notched closing lows for 2026. The 30-stock Dow fell nearly 740 points to post its first close below the 47,000 threshold this year, while the S&P 500 lost 1.5%.
Stocks came under pressure and oil spiked after Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said that the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route, should remain shut as a “tool to pressure the enemy.” West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 9.72% to settle at $95.73 per barrel. Brent crude futures gained 9.22% to end the session at $100.46 a barrel, marking its first close above $100 since August 2022.
Higher oil prices, along with several other key hurdles in the market, are causing investors pain, according to Chris Toomey, managing director at Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management.
“You’ve got the [artificial intelligence] buildout, you’ve got private credit … and this energy situation,” he said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.” “I think the energy situation is the thing that we’re most concerned about.”
Toomey added that if Strait of Hormuz sees sustained impairment beyond two or three months, that “becomes a real problem.”
Higher oil prices and growing inflation fears have also dampened investors’ expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. Traders are now awaiting the release of January’s personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — due Friday morning.
The Dow Jones consensus calls for the headline PCE to have gained 0.3% on a month-to-month basis and 2.9% from 12 months earlier. The estimate for core PCE, which excludes energy and food prices, is anticipated to have gained 0.4% for the month and 3.1% from a year earlier.
The three major averages are on pace for losses on the week. The S&P 500 is on track for a 1% decline, while the Dow is heading for a 1.7% slide. The Nasdaq is off 0.3% week to date.
Asia stocks fall amid renewed fears of a prolonged Iran war
Asia-Pacific markets opened lower Friday as oil prices soared on renewed fears that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could further crimp energy supplies.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 tumbled 0.3% in early Asia trade.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 2% while the broad-based Topix fell 1.4%.
South Korea’s blue chip Kospi slumped almost 3% and the small-cap Kosdaq shed nearly 2%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was set to open lower, with futures last trading at 25,467, compared with the index’s previous close of 25,716.76.
— Anniek Bao
Markets’ hopes for Fed interest rate cuts slide as Iran war continues, oil prices surge
As both energy prices and inflation fears pop, expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are sliding. Traders in the fed funds futures market have taken even a September cut off the table and now see only one coming, in December, according to the CME gauge.
Traders in recent days have abandoned hopes of an early summer easing from the central bank, a change in thinking that coincided with the U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran and a burst in oil prices to around $100 a barrel. There are no additional cuts priced in until well into 2027 or even into the early part of 2028, despite the presence of presumptive new Chair Kevin Warsh, picked by President Donald Trump ostensibly for a willingness to ease aggressively. Current Chair Jerome Powell leaves the position in May.
Whether that outlook holds up likely will depend on how things play out in the Middle East. Should the situation improve, it could reinstall a sense of normalcy to the markets and renew hopes for more easing.
Even with Brent crude settling above $100, Trump again called on Powell to cut.
“Where is the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome “Too Late” Powell, today? He should be dropping Interest Rates, IMMEDIATELY, not waiting for the next meeting!” Trump posted on Truth Social.
— Jeff Cox
Ulta Beauty, Adobe among stocks moving after Thursday’s close
Check out the companies making headlines in after-hours trading.
- Ulta Beauty — Ulta shares dropped 8% after the beauty products retailer reported weak earnings results. For its fourth quarter, Ulta posted earnings of $8.01 per share, falling short of the $8.03 per share that analysts polled by LSEG were expecting. The retailer’s revenue of $3.90 billion came out ahead of the $3.80 billion expected.
- Adobe — The software giant saw shares tumble nearly 7%. CEO Shantanu Narayen said that he would step down from his post after a successor has been named. Narayen will remain as chair of the company’s board. He has been Adobe’s CEO since 2007. The news overshadowed first-quarter beats on the top and bottom lines.
- Lennar — The homebuilder dropped 2% in the after-hours session, after Lennar reported a second quarterly earnings miss in a row. The company reported earnings of 93 cents per share on revenue of $6.62 billion, falling short of the 96 cents per share and $6.88 billion that was expected by analysts polled by LSEG.
For the full list, read here.
— Pia Singh
