Stock futures were little changed on Monday, as investors looked ahead for forthcoming inflation data.
Futures tied to the S&P 500 hovered near the flatline. Nasdaq 100 futures advanced nearly 0.1%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained 16 points, or 0.04%.
Stocks ended Monday’s trading near the flatline, with the S&P 500 closing with a marginal decline of 0.04% and the 30-stock Dow losing 0.03%. The Nasdaq Composite eked out a small gain of 0.03%.
During the session, the 10-year Treasury yield topped 4.4% as investors awaited Wednesday’s consumer price index report for more insight into how the Federal Reserve’s rate policy has been affecting inflation. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect inflation to have increased 0.3% in March.
“If [CPI] is a surprise and that continues to reprice inflation expectations higher, I think that’s where it becomes dangerous for stocks,” iCapital chief investment strategist Anastasia Amoroso told CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Monday.
Amoroso added that the rise in bond yields has been triggered by an improving growth outlook, underpinned by a stronger-than-expected jobs report from Friday. However, she cautioned that a continued rise in the 10-year yield could signal cause for concern for the broader market.
“If the moves are somewhat contained here I think we’re fine, despite the backup, but obviously if you have anything closer to a breakout to 4.8%, I think we’d have to worry,” she said.
In the way of economic data, the National Federation of Independent Business will issue its small business survey results on Tuesday. In addition to Wednesday’s release of the CPI, the Federal Reserve’s minutes from its March meeting are also slated for that day.
Real estate sector outperforms on otherwise tepid day
The S&P 500 ended Monday with a slight decline of 0.04%, but the real estate sector outperformed.
Apartment real estate investment trusts were the strongest names in the sector, with Camden Property Trust up 5.7%. The stock registered its best session since November 2022.
Gold futures extend 2024 rally to 13.5%, touch intraday record of $2372.50/ounce
June gold futures touched an intraday record $2372.50/ounce before closing at new record of $2351.00, the 15th closing record of the year.
Gold also extended its year-to-date rally to 13.5%, although gold bugs need to remember that on an inflation-adjusted basis, gold’s all-time was $3460.77 when Jimmy Carter was president in January, 1980.
Silver futures are higher by 15.5% so far in 2024, while copper futures are up 9.9%. Aluminum is only ahead 3% in 2024, but still touched its highest Monday since February, 2023. Similarly, tin rose to its highest Monday since January, 2023, but has surged 18% in 2024.
All those moves pale beside the rocket ship known as cocoa, which touched an all-time high of $10,443 per metric tonne on Monday — bringing its 2024 rally to 131.5%.
July cocoa futures in 2024.
— Scott Schnipper, Gina Francolla
