Stock Futures Rising Ahead of Fed Minutes With Jobs Data Again in Focus

Two-and-a-half weeks after a weak July jobs report caused stocks to tumble, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release its preliminary benchmark revisions to net payroll growth for the 12 months ending in March 2024. The agency is expected to revise net job gains down by about 500,000, which the market could take as a sign that the economy is in a weaker state than previous data had indicated.

The Federal Reserve is also set to publish the minutes from its July meeting today, which could give investors a sense of the central bank’s stance on monetary policy ahead of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which is set to kick off tomorrow.

U.S. stocks were mixed Wednesday with jobs data again looking like it will have a say about the day’s trading.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures climbed 40 points, or 0.1%. Contracts tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were trading flat, while futures for the S&P 500 rose less than 0.1%. The benchmark gauge had snapped an eight-day streak of gains on Tuesday, scuttling traders’ hopes that it would reach its longest winning run since November 2004.

Investors may be experiencing a a sense of déjà vu as economic concerns return. Two-and-a-half weeks after a weak July jobs report caused stocks to tumble, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release its preliminary benchmark revisions to net payroll growth for the 12 months ending in March 2024 on Wednesday. The agency is expected to revise net job gains down by about 500,000, which the market could take as a sign that the economy is in a weaker state than previous data had indicated.

“It was always going to be tough to sustain such a long run of gains, and several risks are now coming into focus again,” a Deutsche Bank team led by macro strategist Henry Allen said in a research note. “In particular, today will bring the preliminary benchmark revision to US nonfarm payrolls, and given the recent jobs report, there’s quite a bit of concern this will show a weaker labor market than previously thought.”

The Federal Reserve is also set to publish the minutes from its July meeting on Wednesday, which could give investors a sense of the central bank’s stance on monetary policy ahead of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which is set to kick off tomorrow.

Oil prices slipped again as worries about slowing demand trumped investors’ concerns that tensions in the Middle East could escalate into a full-blown conflict involving Iran. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 1.3% to just over $73 a barrel, although the Brent benchmark was trading roughly flat at about $77 a barrel.

Bond yields retreated slightly over the past 24 hours. The yield on the 10-year note was at 3.814%, while the yield on the 2-year note was 3.998%.

The Nikkei Stock Average closed 0.3% lower at 37951.80, trimming earlier losses on possible position adjustment ahead of coming key events such as tonight’s July FOMC meeting’s minutes.

Following the recent selloff, Japan’s equity market now seems more balanced in terms of currency and equity valuation, said Kelly Chung, Chief Investment Officer for Multi Assets at Value Partners, in an email.

Among the worst performers on the benchmark index, Shiseido fell 5.9%, Shimano dropped 3.7%, and Sumitomo Forestry declined 3.7%. USD/JPY was at 145.66, markedly down from 147.21 as of Tuesday’s Tokyo stock-market close. The 10-year JGB yield was down 1.5bps at 0.870%.