US stocks closed a volatile week with a flash of optimism as investors mounted a comeback off promising inflation data and hardening expectations of coming interest-rate cuts.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added 1.6%, or more than 650 points. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose about 1.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) put on 1% although both indexes were in the red for the week.
Stocks turned positive after a turbulent series of sessions. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 have taken a bruising as Big Tech earnings undermined confidence in the AI trade, spurring the ongoing exodus from megacaps into small cap stocks.
The Nasdaq shed 2% over the week, while the S&P lost about 1%. Only the Dow emerged with a win, gaining roughly 1%.
That pause in this year’s rally has Wall Street questioning whether the sell-off is a turning point to sustained lower prices or a typical bull-market pullback. In play are earnings-fueled concerns about softness in the US economy, though Thursday’s surprisingly hot GDP print eased those somewhat.
Friday’s big data point was the closely watched Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which provided more fuel to the notion of a still-strong economy and gradually cooling inflation. “Core” PCE, which strips out the cost of food and energy and is closely watched by the Fed, came in slightly higher than expectations but rose at its slowest pace in over three years.
The encouraging reading sets the stage for next week’s Fed policy meeting. Officials are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. But many anticipate the huddle to be the last before the central bank begins lowering rates in September.
Read more: 32 charts that tell the story of markets and the economy right now
Investors are also getting set for quarterly earnings next week from four more “Magnificent Seven” techs — Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Meta (META).
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Stocks flash optimism after a volatile week
After turbulent sessions sent investors fleeing from Big Tech and dragged major indexes into the red, stocks bounced back Friday, with the Dow gaining more than 650 points and scoring a win for the week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added 1.6%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose about 1.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) put on 1%, although both indexes suffered weekly losses.
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A look at the week ahead
The final week of July has a lot in store for investors.
Will the upcoming Fed policy meeting be the last for the current cycle’s high interest rates? That’s probably the most significant question for the days and weeks ahead. Central bankers are widely expected to hold rates steady at the conclusion of their huddle on Wednesday. But the meeting may also bring the strongest indications of a coming rate cut, with most observers forecasting an easing policy change coming in September.
Friday’s favorable inflation reading was the latest in a string of encouraging indicators. Expect Fed Chair Jerome Powell to field questions on his latest thinking, and if he and his colleagues finally have enough confidence in economic trends to start lowering rates.
Fed week also coincides with the July jobs report (coming Friday) and the majority of Big Tech earnings.
After Google disappointed earlier this week, its peers Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) are on deck to share their quarterly reports. Top of mind for many investors is how their tens of billions of dollars in AI investments are coming along, and how much of those expenses are turning into new business or the potential for new revenue streams.
Other corporate giants outside of the tech world expected to post earnings include McDonald’s (MCD) Starbucks (SBUX), Boeing (BA), and Exxon Mobil (XOM).
Here’s Yahoo Finance’s Brent Sanchez with a visual breakdown of the week ahead:
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Big Tech earnings will test the limits of AI spending
What happens when heavy AI spending meets slowing ad growth? Google just found out the hard way. And the search giant’s rough week may serve as a preview for the other major tech names expected to report earnings in the coming days.
Shares in Google’s (GOOG, GOOGL) parent company Alphabet are down more than 6% this week after reporting larger than expected spending on AI infrastructure as well as slowing ad growth, suggesting that the leeway given to companies pursuing unproven AI business lines only goes so far.
Google’s case might have been a one-off, though.
In Google’s case, it may be that heightened scrutiny on AI spending only comes into play when other business lines are showing weakness. Wall Street’s leash appeared to get a lot shorter when the company revealed its main ads business is under pressure.
For the other tech giants, their massive AI spending alone might not trigger a sell-off. Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) earnings will serve as the next test of investor tolerance for AI spending when the companies report next week.
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The fallout from the CrowdStrike outage
Nearly a week after a massive IT outage shut down computer systems around the world, cybersecurity company CrowdStrike (CRWD) issued a statement revealing that a single software update was responsible for grounding planes, curtailing hospital procedures, and closing businesses for days.
Shares of the company are down about 16% over the past week.
The announcement came as the majority of companies returned to business as usual. But it points to the vulnerability of our modern internet infrastructure and how taking out even a relatively small number of devices — Microsoft (MSFT) estimates 8.5 million systems were affected — can impact our lives, reports Yahoo Finance’s Daniel Howley.
Outside of a need for a regimented approach to IT failures, the CrowdStrike outage also points to a broader problem within the backbone of the world’s tech infrastructure: A small number of companies have an outsized impact on how the web operates.
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Stocks trending in afternoon trading
Here are some of the stocks leading Yahoo Finance’s trending tickers page during afternoon trading on Friday.
Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH): Shares of the government and military contractor fell by 10% Friday afternoon after the company reported earnings that missed Wall Street estimates. Booz Allen posted revenue of $2.94 billion for the quarter.
T Rowe Price (TROW): Shares of the asset manager fell 3% despite reporting an 11% increase in second quarter adjusted profit on Friday. T Rowe is under broader pressure due to the rising popularity of passively managed funds, which serve as a low-cost alternative to active managers.
3M (MMM): Shares of the manufacturing company rose more than 15% early Friday after raising the low end of its full-year adjusted earnings guidance and reporting second quarter sales that came in above expectations.
DexCom (DXCM): The manufacturer behind glucose monitors saw its shares plummet close to 40% Friday morning after the company shocked Wall Street with a cut to its annual revenue forecast tied to fewer new customers and an internal restructuring.
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Dow surges 700 points in afternoon trading
US stocks gained ground Friday afternoon, fueled by the latest inflation data that showed easing pricing pressures and renewed confidence in parts of the stock market outside of big technology names.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added 1.8%, or more than 700 points. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose about 1.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) climbed 1.3%. The Dow is on track for a win for the week while the S&P and the Nasdaq are set to lose.
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The Fed inches closer to easing
Fed officials will huddle next week to decide the next the next course of action on interest rate policy. While the market widely expects officials to hold rates steady in July, the meeting’s significance comes as officials hint at where they stand for their September meeting, when observers predict the first rate will arrive.
“We expect the Fed to keep its policy rate unchanged in July while signaling progress on reducing inflation has resumed,” said Bank of America Global Research analyst Michael Gapen in a report on Friday.
Even though Fed officials have indicated that recent inflation readings are encouraging, some analysts still do not believe that a September cut is guaranteed. Fed officials have emphasized that more data is needed before they can pull the trigger on an easing cycle.
“The Fed is optimistic that cuts are likely in the near-term, but we do not think it is willing to signal September is a done deal,” Gapen said. “It could happen, but it would depend on the data.”
Gapen also noted that easing inflation has prompted the Fed to emphasize both sides of its dual mandate, instead of just focusing on price stability. That will give officials leeway to cut rates for a variety of reasons.
“Cuts can happen because the economy cools, because inflation slows, or both.”
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Stocks trending in morning trading
Here are some of the stocks leading Yahoo Finance’s trending tickers page during morning trading on Friday.
3M (MMM): Shares of the manufacturing company rose more than 15% early Friday after raising the low end of its full-year adjusted earnings guidance and reporting second quarter sales that came in above expectations.
DexCom (DXCM): The manufacturer behind glucose monitors saw its shared plummet close to 40% Friday morning after the company shocked Wall Street with a cut to its annual revenue forecast tied to fewer new customers and an internal restructuring.
Deckers Outdoors (DECK): Shares of the footwear designer rose 7% after the company reported Q1 results that beat estimates, with net sales of $825.3 million coming in better than the $807.8 million Wall Street was expecting. Deckers also raised its full-year profit forecast.
Coursera (COUR): The online learning platform, which has been under pressure because of the looming threat of an AI-led disruption in education, surged more than 40% Friday after earnings came in above expectations. Coursera said it surpassed more than 2 million enrollments in its array of generative AI offerings.
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Coming rate cuts could calm fears of slowing growth
This week’s topsy-turvy trading was fueled in part by fears of slowing growth and second-guessing tied to Big Tech’s AI push.
But Friday’s favorable inflation reading, which will boost the case for the Fed to start cutting rates, could help calm those fears, as more affordable borrowing will help the economy to continue to expand.
“Recently, the market has pivoted to fears of slowing growth over fears of sticky inflation, and we think both concerns are valid, but if the Fed is able to lower rates in a predictable and reasonable manner then the economy should continue to expand and inflation should (very slowly) proceed lower to the Fed’s target,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, in a note on Friday.
A recent stream of encouraging inflation data has also helped minimize less-favorable price pressure data from the first quarter, which Fed officials have said prompted them to rethink their rate-cutting timeline and instead instill a plan of higher rates for longer.
Without that impediment, central bankers now have more leeway to start cutting rates. “For the past few months the inflation data have been cooperating,” Zaccarelli said. And as long as the data keeps coming in to boost the Fed’s confidence in slowing inflation, multiple cuts could be in store for the year.
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Stocks poised for rebound after encouraging inflation data
The final session of a volatile trading week had stocks set for a rebound as new inflation data showed easing price pressures, boosting investor confidence in a widely expected September rate cut.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) added 0.6%, or about 200 points, after the blue-chip index eked out a closing gain. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose about 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) climbed 1.1%, both coming off a failed attempt to rebound from this week’s tech-led sell-off.
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Fed’s preferred inflation gauge steadies ahead of expected cuts
The latest reading of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed prices increased slightly more than expected in June.
The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which strips out the cost of food and energy and is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose 2.6% over the prior year in June; above economists’ estimate of a 2.5% increase and unchanged from the month prior. Still, the print marked the slowest annual increase for core PCE in more than three years.
Core PCE rose 0.2 % from the prior month, in line with Wall Street’s expectations for 0.2% and faster than the 0.1% increase seen in May.
