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Will the Federal Reserve pour cold water on the rally? That’s the question after historic gains in the U.S. stock market following Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election.
The Fed’s monetary-policy meeting ends on Thursday and while its decision is not in doubt, the market will be watching carefully for whether the central bank introduces any note of caution into its rate-cutting plans after Trump’s win.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 76 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 futures were climbing 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures were rising 0.2%.
All three indexes finished Wednesday with record closing highs after it became rapidly clear that Trump had won the presidential election over Vice President Kamala Harris. The Dow surged more than 1,500 points. Futures tied to the small-cap Russell 2000 index were up 0.1% on Thursday, after its 5.8% gain the previous day.
On top of the presidential election, it now appears very likely that the Republican party will also have control of the Senate and the House of Representatives. That means Trump is set to be able to push ahead with his flagship tariff and tax-cut policies.
The Fed is overwhelmingly expected to announce a quarter-percent rate cut on Thursday. However, all eyes will be on whether central bank officials hint at being less willing to reduce rates further in the face of possible inflationary policies under a Trump presidency.
Traders have already rushed to lessen their bets on rate cuts, with the probability of a further quarter-point cut in December standing at 67% on Wednesday according to the CME FedWatch tool, down from 77% a day earlier.
“We doubt Chair Jay Powell is ready to endorse the market’s less dovish re-pricing of the Fed’s easing cycle by saying prospective Republican policy is inflationary. It would be a bullish dollar surprise if he did,” wrote ING analyst Chris Turner in a research note.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note stood at 4.426% early on Thursday, ticking down slightly from the previous day but still significantly higher than before the election.
