Stock market today: Dow rises, S&P 500, Nasdaq slide with Trump-China tensions, Fed’s Powell in focus

Stocks closed Tuesday’s trading session mixed, with the day’s results largely driven by a ratcheting upward of trade threats and maneuvers between the US and China.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) lost 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) managed to gain 0.4%, or just over 200 points, to stay in the green.

Also in focus were comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who said “the downside risks to employment appear to have risen” in a speech in Philadelphia at the National Association for Business Economics.

The largest focus throughout the trading session was on escalations in a trade war between Washington and Beijing that only seems to be getting hotter. Taking aim at US maritime trade, China placed sanctions on five US-linked units of South Korean shipbuilding firm Hanwha Ocean, effectively barring Chinese companies from doing business with them.

The two countries also began charging special port fees on one another’s vessels on Tuesday. Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping remain scheduled to meet later this month, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said.

Markets dipped once more right before the closing bell after a Truth Social post from Trump threatened a cessation in US purchases of Chinese cooking oil products, dubbing China’s stoppage in US soybean purchases an “Economically Hostile Act.”

“I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act. We are considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution,” the president wrote on Truth Social.

In more positive news for the market, the country’s largest banks began reporting earnings Tuesday morning, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Wells Fargo (WFC) all posting largely stellar results.

Stocks turned downward shortly before the market close Tuesday afternoon after a Truth Social post from President Trump threatening new economic actions against China.

In a post around 3:45 p.m. ET, Trump said the US is considering ceasing its purchases of Chinese cooking oil products in retaliation for China’s decision to stop buying soybeans from US farmers.

“I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act. We are considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution,” Trump said in the post.

The move would be the latest in a series of tit-for-tat maneuvers in an ongoing trade war between the world’s two largest economies. After Beijing announced new export controls on critical minerals halting the export of magnets and other products with even trace amounts of the metals, Trump threatened a “massive increase” in tariffs.

He subsequently posted a follow-up on Sunday taking a softer tone toward Beijing and US-China trade.

Intel (INTC) is adding to its AI-focused offerings with a new GPU for data centers, announced today. Yahoo Finance’s Daniel Howley reports:

Read the full story here.

Despite a series of trade wars and tariff headwinds, global trade grew faster in the first half of the year than in any other half-year period since 2010, excluding the post-pandemic rebound, according to a survey released Tuesday by shipping and delivery giant DHL.

ADRs on DHL (DHLGY) lost a bit less than 0.5% on Tuesday. Shares in UPS (UPS) and FedEx (FDX) gained nearly 1% and 2%, respectively, through mid-afternoon trading on Tuesday.

The report is projecting that global trade, which has been rocked in recent months by an escalating tit-for-tat trade war between the US and China and the lingering effects of the Trump administration’s ream of new tariff policies, will grow at an annualized rate of 2.5% per year between 2025 and 2029.

Prior to the “Liberation Day” tariff announcements, the expected annualized growth rate was 3.1%.

“Trade barriers do not serve the world’s best interests. But we must never underestimate the creativity of buyers and sellers around the world who want to do business with each other,” said DHL Express CEO John Pearson.

The US dramatically hiked imports through the first half as companies attempted to get ahead of tariff rates, and China offset reduced exports to the US by increasing its trade with other countries through Asia, Africa, and Europe, the report found.

Stocks dumped market value on Friday after a Truth Social post from President Trump threatening 100% tariffs on goods from China in response to new critical mineral export controls from Beijing. But the market largely recovered on Monday after a second post from the president signaled a softer tone on US-China trade relations.

Shipping giants Kirby Corporation (KEX) and Matson (MATX) were up more than 1% and more than 2%, respectively, while Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK) lost a bit less than 1%.

Futures on Brent crude oil (BZ=F) and West Texas Intermediate crude (CL=F) briefly fell below $62 and $58, respectively, before making a slight recovery on Tuesday after a bearish report on an upcoming supply glut.

Prices fell largely in reaction to a report released Tuesay by the International Energy Agency, which said the global oil surplus next year could climb to an unprecedented 4 million barrels per day, raising the agency’s expectations from their previous 3.3 million barrels per day prediction.

Such a surplus would be equivalent to nearly 4% of the world’s entire demand, according to Reuters.

The coming glut has largely been driven by a combination of growing oversupply and falling demand. The OPEC+ cartel, led largely by Saudi Arabia, agreed in early October to raise production levels again by 137,000 barrels per day as the kingdom looks to reclaim market share.

The US’s own crude inventories for the week ended Oct. 10 will likely rise to 5.2 million barrels per day from the previous week’s 3.7 million build as demand is projected to slip, according to analysts at Macquarie Bank. The US Energy Information Administration publishes prior week numbers at 10:30 a.m. ET each Wednesday.

The volume of oil onboard sea-bound tankers has climbed to more than 1 billion barrels, according to Vortex data cited by Bloomberg — the highest level seen since 2020, when the pandemic left barrels largely stranded at sea.

Build-up through the first three quarters of the year had largely been absorbed by China, which has been importing massive stockpiles of crude that far outpace the nation’s domestic demand. But given the rising level of barrels at sea, analysts have said China’s absorption will only do so much.

In a note last week, Macquarie analysts said in a note that “crude price is not yet reflecting the large, broadly anticipated surpluses” and that futures contracts remained backwardated, meaning contracts for dates further out are more expensive than near-term contracts.

As of Friday, however, futures contracts for the US benchmark WTI crude were trading below current rates through 2026 — a market condition called contango, signaling an incoming surplus.

OpenAI (OPAI.PVT) recently committed to bringing online 26 gigawatts worth of computing capacity through deals with chipmakers Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Broadcom (AVGO).

Citi (C) analysts estimate that for every 1 gigawatt of compute capacity it looks to add, OpenAI will have to spend a total of $50 billion on infrastructure. Hence, analyst Chris Danely estimated in a note to clients on Monday that OpenAI’s latest deals with chipmakers would represent $1.3 billion in cumulative capital expenditures from the firm through 2030.

Meanwhile, fellow Citi analyst Heath Terry estimates OpenAI’s revenue will rise from $12.5 billion in 2025 to $163 billion by 2030 — raising the question of how the ChatGPT maker will fund its ambitious AI infrastructure investments.

There’s also the question of whether US power infrastructure could scale up in time to support such massive amounts of computing capacity.

OpenAI’s latest deals with Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom are not inclusive of its total commitments. The AI chatbot company also has a reported $300 billion commitment to Oracle (ORCL) and $22 billion worth of deals with AI data center provider CoreWeave (CRWV).

The world’s largest corporate bitcoin holder, Strategy (MSTR), and crypto exchange platform Coinbase (COIN) led some crypto stocks down Tuesday, with shares in the firms dropping nearly 2% in midday trading.

Crypto investment platform Robinhood (HOOD) and stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) pared losses from earlier in the session to trade down fractionally as the broader market recovered from an earlier rout.

Meanwhile, some crypto stocks jumped. Riot Platforms (RIOT) shares gained nearly 4%, while MARA Holdings (MARA) was up more than 8%.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday in a speech that the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since the central bank’s policy meeting in September.

However, Powell emphasized that “the downside risks to employment appear to have risen.”

Yahoo Finance’s Jennifer Schonberger reports:

Read more here or watch a livestream of Powell’s speech below.

Walmart (WMT) stock gained 3% in midday trading on Tuesday on news that the retailer would be partnering with OpenAI (OPAI.PVT), the most valuable AI startup, which has been making a slew of deals in recent months.

Yahoo Finance’s Brooke DiPalma reports:

Read more here.

Yahoo Finance’s David Hollerith reports:

Read more here.

Yahoo Finance’s Jake Conley reports:

Read the full story here.

While the broader market suffered from a trade war-fueled rout, Arm (ARM) shares jumped more than 4% Tuesday following a report the previous day from the Information that the semiconductor designer is in talks with OpenAI (OPAI.PVT) for the ChatGPT maker to use its chips.

Arm designs blueprints for central processing units (CPUs) — the “brains” of computers — which work alongside specialized AI chips to run artificial intelligence software. For example, Arm-based CPUs are used in Nvidia’s (NVDA) servers alongside its Blackwell AI processors.

But Arm is reportedly developing its own CPU in addition to selling design blueprints, the Information reported. The company is talking with OpenAI about the AI chatbot firm using those CPUs alongside the AI chips it’s developing, according to the outlet. OpenAI unveiled a partnership with Broadcom (AVGO) to make such AI chips on Monday.

Nvidia (NVDA) stock fell 3.6% Tuesday, leading a downturn in Big Tech stocks after a strong but short-lived recovery on Monday.

All of the chipmaker’s fellow “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks also dropped, with Tesla (TSLA) shares sinking 3.2%, Amazon (AMZN) declining 2.2%, and Meta (META) dipping 1.3%. Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and Apple (AAPL) fell less than 1%.

Meanwhile, Broadcom (AVGO) — the custom AI chipmaker with a larger market capitalization than Tesla, which isn’t a part of the Magnificent Seven — also sank. Shares fell 3.5% after a big upswing on Monday as the company announced a massive deal with OpenAI (OPAI.PVT).

Tech led a decline in stocks at the market open Tuesday, as trade tensions once again escalated between the US and China.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) sank over 1.4%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped 1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slid 0.9%.

In addition, investor attention turned to third quarter earnings season with multiple big US banks reporting results. But surging profits at JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS) failed to be reflected in the banks’ stocks in early trading.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) announced plans to spin off its orthopedics business on Tuesday as the company reported better-than-expected earnings and raised its 2025 revenue guidance.

Shares ticked lower in premarket trading.

J&J’s orthopedics unit, which makes hip, knee, and shoulder implants, among other products, is expected to become an independent company called DePuy Synthes within the next 18 to 24 months.

“We think this business will benefit from focused capital deployment and a focus in the competitive landscape. We think this positions both entities for success,” CFO Joe Wolk told Yahoo Finance’s Julie Hyman.

For the quarter, J&J reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.80, compared to Wall Street estimates of $2.76.

Pharmaceutical sales rose 6.8% year over year to $15.56 billion, while medical device sales also rose 6.8% to $8.43 billion. Oncology treatment sales hit $3.67 billion.

Johnson & Johnson raised its 2025 sales forecast by about $300 million to a new range of $93.5 billion to $93.9 billion, above analysts’ expectations of $93.4 billion.

Nvidia (NVDA) rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) saw its stock climb as much as 3% in premarket trading on Tuesday as the company announced a deal with Oracle (ORCL) to provide its cloud business with 50,000 AI chips.

The news comes amid a slew of deals in the AI space just a week after AMD announced a deal with OpenAI (OPAI.PVT) to provide the AI chatbot maker with 6 gigawatts worth of its GPUs (graphics processing units). OpenAI is also a major customer of Oracle.

AMD shares are up more than 36% over the past month.

Meanwhile, Oracle stock was down more than 1% before the market open amid the broader market downtrend. The company recently soared after announcing a backlog of massive AI contracts with its cloud business, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, with $300 billion of that contracted revenue reportedly coming from OpenAI.

But the stock pulled back some as Oracle unexpectedly raised $18 billion in debt, just as some analysts have cautioned that tech firms may begin turning to debt rather than relying on internal cash flows to fund their ambitious plans for AI infrastructure.

Read more about AMD and Oracle’s deal here.

Bloomberg reports:

Read more here.

Nova Minerals (NVA) stock doubled in premarket trading, rising as much as 108%, after the Australian gold, antimony, and critical minerals miner said that it was engaged in Australia’s high-level talks with President Trump.

In a press release, the company said that it had been approached by the Australian ambassador to the US to provide an update on its Estelle gold and critical minerals project in Alaska. The briefing is in preparation for the upcoming meeting between Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and President Trump in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 20.

The Estelle project, northwest of Anchorage, was jump-started with a $43.4 million award from the US Department of War (DoW) and other government backing. It’s targeting military-grade antimony, a metal that was added to the critical minerals list, by 2026/27.

The briefing suggests potential interest in a US stake in the project. Trump has recently moved to create US stakes in critical materials companies, including Trilogy Metals (TMQ), Lithium Americas (LAC), and MP Materials (MP).

Resolution Minerals (NC3.F), another Australian mineral exploration company that was asked to brief the ambassador, saw its stock jump by over 45%.

JP Morgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon to me on his thinking behind calling asset prices “elevated” for the second straight time on his earnings release. The comments are fresh off Dimon’s call with journalists to discuss earnings.

Explained Dimon:

“I would put it in the category of a risk factor at this point. And when asset prices are elevated, you have further to fall. Something goes wrong, and things look pretty good. You know, consumers are still spending companies are making money. Prices are up. So I just put it as a category of concern. We measure historically, they’re pretty high. Credit spreads are kind of low. You have a lot of assets out there which look like they’re entering bubble territory. That doesn’t mean you don’t have 20% to go. It’s just one more cause of concern.”

Even as the White House calmed the rolling boil of China tensions down to a simmer on Monday, one asset remained scorching — gold (GC=F).

Yahoo Finance’s Hamza Shaban digs into what fueled this week’s rally in the precious metal:

Read more here in today’s takeaway from Morning Brief.