Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Surge After Trump Tariffs Reprieve on Tech; Nvidia, Palantir, Intel, More Movers; Dollar Falls

Pretty much everything was rallying on Monday.

With the S&P 500 up 1.5%, roughly 460 of the stocks in the index were rising. The Dow was up about 500 points, or 1.2%, with only three stocks down on the day. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.8%.

At the sector level, tech was leading the way after smartphones, PCs, servers and other technology goods were exempted from the recent round of tariffs—though the Trump administration has teased industry-specific levies.

But all 11 major S&P 500 sectors were rising. The biggest laggards—consumer discretionary and energy—were both up about 1%. The rest of the major sectors were up between 1.1% and 1.9%.

Bond yields were also pulling back—an encouraging sign given the concerns sparked by bond market selling last week. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note was down to 3.91%. The 10-year yield was down to 4.43%.

That doesn’t mean the stock market is out of the woods. Strategists see a higher chance of a recession in the wake of uncertain trade policy and weakening sentiment. Citi strategist Scott Chronert now sees a base case for the S&P 500 of 5800, with index earnings of $255 per share. He previously had 6500 base case forecast. His new bull case is 6400.

“Both tariff assumptions and recent signs of macro slowing trigger the downward revision from a previous $270 projection,” he writes. “Some valuation compression is also warranted as a function of policy uncertainty.”

He does see less risk to the downside from here, and thinks further pullbacks would improve the risk-reward through the end of the year.