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US stocks edged higher on Monday as downbeat data and comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added to worries about the economy ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) ticked up 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained 0.5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) edged 0.3% higher.
The gauges attempted to climb after a sell-off that saw the S&P 500 (^GSPC) enter correction territory and the Dow book its worst weekly performance since March 2023. Markets have been buffeted by economic slowdown fears and uncertainty over Trump’s unpredictable tariff policy.
Bessent inflamed those worries on Sunday when he told NBC that he’s not worried about the recent slump in stocks, saying “corrections are healthy.” He added that there are “no guarantees” the US will avoid recession.
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Stocks were trading higher on Monday as bets of rate cuts this year rose after a fresh print showed retail sales rose less than expected in February, while January’s reading was revised lower.
Monthly retail sales were up 0.2%, versus estimates of a 0.6% rise, while the previous month’s 0.9% drop was revised to a fall of 1.2%.
Meanwhile, the New York Fed’s reading on manufacturing activity in New York state showed a sharp pullback in March, with the headline business conditions index falling to -20 from a reading of 5.7 in February.
Wall Street is also bracing for the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting starting Tuesday, where it is widely expected to stand pat on interest rates. Investors will look for any sign that Trump’s policies are changing the central bank’s views of the future of the economy.
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Builder confidence drops in March to lowest level in seven months
Builders are feeling less confident about the housing market as they navigate economic uncertainty, the threat of tariffs, and high housing costs.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell to 39 in March, down 3 points from February and the lowest level in seven months. According to Bloomberg data, economists were expecting a reading of 42. A reading below 50 indicates more builders view conditions as poor rather than good.
“Builders continue to face elevated building material costs that are exacerbated by tariff issues, as well as other supply-side challenges that include labor and lot shortages,” NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, a homebuilder and developer from Lexington, N.C., said in a press release.
President Trump last week imposed a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum products, without exemptions or exceptions, a move that could raise housing costs.
“Construction firms are facing added cost pressures from tariffs,” NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz said in the release.
Dietz noted “Data from the HMI March survey reveals that builders estimate a typical cost effect from recent tariff actions at $9,200 per home. Uncertainty on policy is also having a negative impact on home buyers and development decisions.”
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Stocks attempt to climb higher after volatile week
US stocks were mixed in early trading on Monday after the release of weak economic data and ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) traded near the flat line, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was little changed. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell slightly.
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Weak economic data appeared to send stocks higher over expectations of Fed rate cuts sooner, rather than later.
Retail sales rose 0.2% in February, less than the 0.6% expected, while January’s 0.9% drop was revised down to 1.2%.
The New York Fed’s reading on manufacturing activity in New York state showed a sharp pullback this month, with the headline business conditions index falling to -20 from 5.7 in February.
All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve’s meeting this week, though investors expect policymakers to announce they will hold rates steady on Wednesday afternoon.
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Business optimism in New York State plummets in March
National readings on consumer and business confidence have shown signs of weakness as markets sink and Trump’s trade war takes shape, and the regional data isn’t much better.
On Monday, the New York Fed’s reading on manufacturing activity in New York state showed a sharp pullback this month, with the reading’s headline business conditions index falling to -20 from 5.7 in February.
The index is calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents reporting lower confidence about conditions from those reporting higher confidence in the business outlook.
This reading marks the lowest for the survey since January 2024.
“Manufacturing activity dropped significantly in New York State in March,” said Richard Deitz, economic research adviser at the NY Fed. “Input price increases climbed for a third straight month to hit their fastest pace in more than two years. In addition, supply availability is expected to contract and firms continued to grow less optimistic about the future business outlook.”
The survey was conducted from March 3-11.
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US retail sales rise less than expected in February
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Nvidia stock ticks higher ahead of ‘AI Woodstock’
Nvidia (NVDA) shares rose over 1% in premarket, with the kick-off of the chipmaking giant’s annual software developer conference just hours away.
The stakes are high for Nvidia, whose market cap is nearing $3 trillion thanks to its dominance in AI — which is under threat after DeepSeek upended AI spending hopes with its cheaper chatbot.
The Wall Street Journal reports:
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Trump’s tariffs loom over a still-cautious Fed
Yahoo Finance’s Jennifer Schonberger reports:
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Good morning. Here’s what’s happening today.
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Oil rises on China plans to increase consumption
Oil prices have risen for a second consecutive day after China revealed plans to increase oil consumption.
Bloomberg reports:
